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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 23

Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal

2 – 0 Full time

6′Jovan Lukić
14′Hennadii Synchuk
24′Bruno Damiani
29′Samuel Piette
46′J. NealB. Craig
56′Dawid Bugaj
58′D. Jean Jacques
68′Kai Wagner
69′I. VassilevQ. Sullivan
69′J. LukicJ. Bueno
69′S. PietteV. Loturi
69′G. SynchukW. Carmona
73′Victor Loturi
75′C. Sullivan
79′A. SanchezN. Streit
79′L. PetrassoD. Rios
83′C. SullivanA. Bedoya
83′M. IloskiE. Alladoh
90′Jesus Bueno
90′B. DamianiM. Jakupovic

Subaru Park, ChesterReferee: Chris Penso, USA

Philadelphia Union 67%
Draw 19%
CF Montreal 15%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

19 Shots 5
8 Shots on target 2
51 Possession % 49
6 Corners 1
15 Fouls 8
0 Offsides 3
2 Saves 6
312 Accurate passes 326

Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPhiladelphia UnionDrawCF Montreal
Model65.6%18.3%16.1%
Market66.8%18.9%14.2%
Final66.5%18.8%14.7%
Edge-1.3%-0.6%+1.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Philadelphia Union

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.65 vs 1.30.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Philadelphia U ↓ / CF Montreal → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 2 7% 9% 6% 3 6% 8% 5% 4+ 8% 10% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 91%
3+ goals 75%
No goals 3%

Philadelphia Union and CF Montreal expected goals

Philadelphia Union 2.65
CF Montreal 1.30

Total expected goals: 3.95

Philadelphia Union and CF Montreal attack and defence ratings

Philadelphia Union

Attack 1.19 +19%
Defence 1.03 +3%

CF Montreal

Attack 0.92 -8%
Defence 1.29 +29%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal: result vs prediction

Philadelphia Union 2 – 0 CF Montreal

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 23 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Philadelphia Union 66.5% 1.50 -1.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 75.4% 1.33 — —
Both teams to score Yes 68.2% 1.47 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 85.3% 1.17 — —
Handicap -1 Philadelphia Union win 45.6% 2.19 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Philadelphia Union66.5%
Draw18.8%
CF Montreal14.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575.4%
Under 2.524.6%
Both teams to scoreYes68.2%
No31.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)85.3%
12 (either side)81.2%
X2 (draw or away)33.5%
Handicap -1Philadelphia Union win45.6%
Push (exactly one goal)20.0%
Loss34.4%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.8%
3-17.8%
1-17.3%

Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal stats

Philadelphia Union and CF Montreal recent form

newest first
Philadelphia Union WDDWLW
CF Montreal LDWDDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Philadelphia Union and CF Montreal going into this match

league record before kick-off

Philadelphia Union record

  • They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

CF Montreal record

  • They have won 5 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 23 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Philadelphia Union wins 1Draws 3CF Montreal wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-11CF MontrealPhiladelphia UnionMajor League Soccer1-2
2026-02-10Philadelphia UnionCF MontrealFriendlies Clubs2-4
2025-07-16Philadelphia UnionCF MontrealMajor League Soccer2-1
2025-05-03CF MontrealPhiladelphia UnionMajor League Soccer1-2
2025-02-14CF MontrealPhiladelphia UnionFriendlies Clubs0-1
2024-08-09Philadelphia UnionCF MontrealLeagues Cup2-0
2024-06-29CF MontrealPhiladelphia UnionMajor League Soccer4-2
2024-06-01Philadelphia UnionCF MontrealMajor League Soccer2-2
2023-06-03Philadelphia UnionCF MontrealMajor League Soccer3-0
2023-03-18CF MontrealPhiladelphia UnionMajor League Soccer3-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 65.3%, draw 19.7%, away 15.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.49 4.65 5.40
Bet365 1.42 5.00 7.00
BetVictor 1.40 5.00 6.50
Betano 1.45 4.80 6.60
Betfair 1.40 4.75 6.00
Dafabet 1.46 5.00 6.40
Marathonbet 1.41 4.90 6.30
Pinnacle 1.43 5.18 6.78
SBO 1.46 3.98 4.77
Unibet 1.47 4.50 5.80
William Hill 1.62 3.90 4.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.42 ▼ -0.06
X 5.00 ▲ +0.50
2 6.64 ▲ +1.04

24 snapshots recorded, from .