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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 23

Orlando City SC vs San Diego

1 – 0 Full time

28′A. Griezmann
52′B. RheinM. Ojeda
62′O. VerhoevenD. Thorhallsson
63′I. MurphyC. McVey
63′A. Alvarado JrA. Pellegrino
66′J. GerbetW. Cartagena
67′D. DikeT. Spicer
75′J. EllisLuis Otavio
75′E. AtuestaM. Pasalic
79′O. ValakariD. Vazquez
84′David Vazquez
85′Luis Otávio
90′Iván Angulo
90′David Brekalo
90′Kieran Sargeant
90′Gabriel PiraniB. Duke

Exploria Stadium, OrlandoReferee: Joseph Dickerson, USA

Orlando City SC 43%
Draw 24%
San Diego 34%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

15 Shots 7
5 Shots on target 2
47 Possession % 53
6 Corners 4
11 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 3
2 Saves 3
418 Accurate passes 502

Orlando City SC vs San Diego overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Orlando City SC vs San Diego

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityOrlando City SCDrawSan Diego
Model38.0%23.6%38.4%
Market44.6%23.5%31.9%
Final42.9%23.5%33.5%
Edge-6.6%+0.0%+6.5%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Orlando City S ↓ / San Diego → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 10% 8% 5% 2 8% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 70%
No goals 4%

Orlando City SC and San Diego expected goals

Orlando City SC 1.81
San Diego 1.82

Total expected goals: 3.64

Orlando City SC and San Diego attack and defence ratings

Orlando City SC

Attack 1.20 +20%
Defence 1.15 +15%

San Diego

Attack 1.17 +17%
Defence 0.88 -12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Orlando City SC vs San Diego: result vs prediction

Orlando City SC 1 – 0 San Diego

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 23 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Orlando City SC vs San Diego markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Orlando City SC 42.9% 2.33 -6.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 70.4% 1.42 — —
Both teams to score Yes 71.0% 1.41 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.5% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 62.0% 1.61 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Orlando City SC42.9%
Draw23.5%
San Diego33.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570.4%
Under 2.529.6%
Both teams to scoreYes71.0%
No29.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)66.5%
12 (either side)76.5%
X2 (draw or away)57.1%
Handicap -1Orlando City SC win20.5%
Push (exactly one goal)17.6%
Loss62.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.6%
1-27.9%
2-17.9%

Orlando City SC vs San Diego stats

Orlando City SC and San Diego recent form

newest first
Orlando City SC DWLDDL
San Diego WWLWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Orlando City SC and San Diego going into this match

league record before kick-off

Orlando City SC record

  • They have won 8 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

San Diego record

  • They have won 8 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 23 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Orlando City SC vs San Diego head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Orlando City SC vs San Diego odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 44.6%, draw 23.5%, away 31.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.12 4.10 2.80
Bet365 2.15 3.90 3.00
BetVictor 2.10 4.00 2.90
Betano 2.15 3.90 3.05
Betfair 2.10 4.20 2.88
Dafabet 2.17 4.00 3.05
Marathonbet 2.11 3.85 2.95
Pinnacle 2.17 4.09 3.05
SBO 2.08 3.43 2.65
Unibet 2.00 3.90 3.15
William Hill 2.05 4.00 2.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.11 ▲ +0.09
X 4.00 —
2 2.95 ▼ -0.10

24 snapshots recorded, from .