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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 24

San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes

2 – 3 Full time

3′N. Tsakiris
7′dos Santos CJ
12′P. Judd
13′P. Judd
18′C. McVey
30′P. JuddO. Bouda
35′O. Bouda
37′O. Bouda
42′A. Dreyer
45′Gabriel PiraniA. Pellegrino
45′B. Leroux
46′A. GodoyA. Alvarado Jr
46′D. ThorhallssonK. Sargeant
46′L. JovanovicE. Lowen
46′R. RobertsM. Floriani
52′J. Tverskov
67′J. JasinskiB. Kikanovic
67′B. LerouxR. Vieira
68′O. ValakariC. Bakambu
75′M. Floriani
80′dos Santos CJ
80′dos Santos CJ
82′A. Alvarado JrD. Ferree
90′M. Floriani
90′M. Floriani
90′C. Bakambu
90′R. Vieira

Snapdragon Stadium, San DiegoReferee: Alexis Da Silva, USA

San Diego 57%
Draw 22%
San Jose Earthquakes 21%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

10 Shots 11
6 Shots on target 6
53 Possession % 47
1 Corners 3
12 Fouls 17
3 Offsides 1
3 Saves 4
481 Accurate passes 423

San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes overview

Garuda Lions analysis: San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySan DiegoDrawSan Jose Earthquakes
Model68.7%19.5%11.8%
Market53.5%22.5%24.0%
Final57.3%21.8%20.9%
Edge+15.3%-3.1%-12.2%

Confidence: Low

Why San Diego

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 0.87.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices San Diego below the model: +15.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

San Diego ↓ / San Jose Earth → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 9% 9% 2 11% 10% 3 9% 7% 4+ 8% 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 62%
No goals 5%

San Diego and San Jose Earthquakes expected goals

San Diego 2.31
San Jose Earthquakes 0.87

Total expected goals: 3.18

San Diego and San Jose Earthquakes attack and defence ratings

San Diego

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 0.85 -15%

San Jose Earthquakes

Attack 0.75 -25%
Defence 1.27 +27%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes: result vs prediction

San Diego 2 – 3 San Jose Earthquakes

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 24 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 San Diego 57.3% 1.75 +15.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 61.6% 1.62 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.3% 1.88 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 79.1% 1.26 — —
Handicap -1 San Diego win 46.5% 2.15 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2San Diego57.3%
Draw21.8%
San Jose Earthquakes20.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561.6%
Under 2.538.4%
Both teams to scoreYes53.3%
No46.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)79.1%
12 (either side)78.2%
X2 (draw or away)42.7%
Handicap -1San Diego win46.5%
Push (exactly one goal)22.3%
Loss31.3%
Correct score (top 3)2-011.1%
2-19.7%
1-19.2%

San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes stats

San Diego and San Jose Earthquakes recent form

newest first
San Diego LWWLWW
San Jose Earthquakes DDLLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

San Diego and San Jose Earthquakes going into this match

league record before kick-off

San Diego record

  • They have won 8 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 23 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

San Jose Earthquakes record

  • They have won 10 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 23 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes head-to-head

Last 4 meetings

2San Diego wins 0Draws 2San Jose Earthquakes wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-05San Jose EarthquakesSan DiegoMajor League Soccer3-0
2026-01-24San DiegoSan Jose EarthquakesFriendlies Clubs2-0
2025-09-28San DiegoSan Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer0-1
2025-08-17San Jose EarthquakesSan DiegoMajor League Soccer1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 53.5%, draw 22.5%, away 24.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.73 4.30 3.90
888Sport 1.75 3.90 3.75
Bet365 1.75 4.00 4.20
BetVictor 1.73 4.20 3.90
Betano 1.82 4.25 4.20
Betfair 1.70 4.33 4.10
Dafabet 1.82 4.20 3.95
Marathonbet 1.75 4.10 3.90
Pinnacle 1.79 4.39 3.94
SBO 1.77 3.84 3.56
Superbet 1.82 4.15 3.90
Unibet 1.73 4.10 4.00
William Hill 1.75 3.90 3.75

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.75 ▲ +0.14
X 4.15 ▼ -0.20
2 3.90 ▼ -0.60

17 snapshots recorded, from .