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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 25

San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo

1 – 0 Full time

1′Ronaldo Vieira
3′Bruce Arena
19′Beau Leroux
38′Daniel Munie
65′Diadie SamassekouHéctor Herrera
69′Beau LerouxNick Fernandez
69′N.TsakirisIan Harkes
75′Agustin Resch
77′Ibrahim AliyuNick Markanich
78′Duncan McGuireMatthew Arana
82′Eduard LöwenJack·Skahan
82′Ousseni BoudaLuka Jovanovic
85′Felipe·De Andrade VieiraFranco Negri
90′Benjamin Kikanovic

PayPal Park, San JoseReferee: Rosendo Mendoza, USA

San Jose Earthquakes 34%
Draw 27%
Houston Dynamo 38%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

10 Shots 11
1 Shots on target 5
38 Possession % 62
1 Corners 3
17 Fouls 14
3 Offsides 1
6 Saves 0
282 Accurate passes 511

San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo overview

Garuda Lions analysis: San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySan Jose EarthquakesDrawHouston Dynamo
Model18.9%29.0%52.2%
Market39.6%26.6%33.8%
Final34.4%27.2%38.4%
Edge-20.8%+2.4%+18.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Houston Dynamo

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 0.79.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Houston Dynamo below the model: +18.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

San Jose Earth ↓ / Houston Dynamo → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 14% 11% 1 13% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 67%
3+ goals 39%
No goals 12%

San Jose Earthquakes and Houston Dynamo expected goals

San Jose Earthquakes 0.79
Houston Dynamo 1.47

Total expected goals: 2.26

San Jose Earthquakes and Houston Dynamo attack and defence ratings

San Jose Earthquakes

Attack 0.84 -16%
Defence 1.27 +27%

Houston Dynamo

Attack 0.85 -15%
Defence 0.54 -46%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo: result vs prediction

San Jose Earthquakes 1 – 0 Houston Dynamo

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 25 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Houston Dynamo 38.4% 2.60 +18.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 60.7% 1.65 — —
Both teams to score No 56.8% 1.76 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.8% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.9% 2.09 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2San Jose Earthquakes34.4%
Draw27.2%
Houston Dynamo38.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539.3%
Under 2.560.7%
Both teams to scoreYes43.2%
No56.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)61.6%
12 (either side)72.8%
X2 (draw or away)65.6%
Handicap -1Houston Dynamo win27.2%
Push (exactly one goal)25.0%
Loss47.9%
Correct score (top 3)0-114.2%
1-113.3%
0-011.7%

San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo stats

San Jose Earthquakes and Houston Dynamo recent form

newest first
San Jose Earthquakes WDDLLL
Houston Dynamo WDDLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

San Jose Earthquakes and Houston Dynamo going into this match

league record before kick-off

San Jose Earthquakes record

  • They have won 11 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 24 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Houston Dynamo record

  • They have won 13 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 24 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.

San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2San Jose Earthquakes wins 3Draws 5Houston Dynamo wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-30Houston DynamoSan Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer0-0
2025-08-24Houston DynamoSan Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer1-2
2025-05-25San Jose EarthquakesHouston DynamoMajor League Soccer3-3
2024-07-18San Jose EarthquakesHouston DynamoMajor League Soccer0-1
2024-03-31Houston DynamoSan Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer2-1
2023-06-22Houston DynamoSan Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer4-1
2023-04-02San Jose EarthquakesHouston DynamoMajor League Soccer2-1
2022-07-18San Jose EarthquakesHouston DynamoMajor League Soccer1-2
2022-04-10Houston DynamoSan Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer4-3
2021-07-25San Jose EarthquakesHouston DynamoMajor League Soccer1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 39.4%, draw 26.2%, away 34.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.40 3.65 2.64
888Sport 2.30 3.50 2.63
Bet365 2.45 3.50 2.80
BetVictor 2.30 3.60 2.75
Betano 2.42 3.60 2.80
Betfair 2.40 3.50 2.80
Dafabet 2.37 3.80 2.80
Marathonbet 2.31 3.66 2.73
Pinnacle 2.43 3.57 2.89
SBO 2.34 3.33 2.60
Unibet 2.48 3.65 2.55
William Hill 2.30 3.40 2.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.37 ▲ +0.07
X 3.54 ▼ -0.01
2 2.77 ▲ +0.09

12 snapshots recorded, from .