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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 24

Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake

2 – 1 Full time

30′D. Luna
33′J. J. Arias
46′L. EngelP. Quinton
54′H. Herrera
57′Guilherme
68′C. Guske
69′A. BouzatD. Samassekou
70′D. YedlinA. Katranis
70′D. LunaLineker Rodrigues
70′J. ShokalookS. Lobjanidze
76′S. Lobjanidze
80′I. AliyuD. McGuire
80′H. HerreraM. Arana
87′M. Bogusz
90′L. EnnaliD. Holmes
90′GuilhermeN. Markanich
90′C. GuskeO. Anderson
90′P. Quinton

Shell Energy Stadium, HoustonReferee: Ramy Touchan, USA

Houston Dynamo 50%
Draw 27%
Real Salt Lake 24%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

12 Shots 9
6 Shots on target 4
51 Possession % 49
1 Corners 4
7 Fouls 18
1 Offsides 4
2 Saves 4
457 Accurate passes 428

Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHouston DynamoDrawReal Salt Lake
Model54.4%29.3%16.3%
Market48.1%25.7%26.1%
Final49.7%26.6%23.7%
Edge+6.3%+3.6%-9.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Houston Dynamo

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.67.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Houston Dynamo below the model: +6.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Houston Dynamo ↓ / Real Salt Lake → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 13% 1 16% 13% 2 13% 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 87%
2+ goals 63%
3+ goals 35%
No goals 13%

Houston Dynamo and Real Salt Lake expected goals

Houston Dynamo 1.44
Real Salt Lake 0.67

Total expected goals: 2.11

Houston Dynamo and Real Salt Lake attack and defence ratings

Houston Dynamo

Attack 0.80 -20%
Defence 0.51 -49%

Real Salt Lake

Attack 0.97 -3%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake: result vs prediction

Houston Dynamo 2 – 1 Real Salt Lake

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 24 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Houston Dynamo 49.7% 2.01 +6.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 64.7% 1.55 — —
Both teams to score No 61.5% 1.63 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 76.3% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 45.6% 2.19 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Houston Dynamo49.7%
Draw26.6%
Real Salt Lake23.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.535.3%
Under 2.564.7%
Both teams to scoreYes38.5%
No61.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)76.3%
12 (either side)73.4%
X2 (draw or away)50.3%
Handicap -1Houston Dynamo win28.2%
Push (exactly one goal)26.2%
Loss45.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-016.3%
0-013.3%
1-112.9%

Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake stats

Houston Dynamo and Real Salt Lake recent form

newest first
Houston Dynamo DDLWWW
Real Salt Lake DLLLLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Houston Dynamo and Real Salt Lake going into this match

league record before kick-off

Houston Dynamo record

  • They have won 12 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 23 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.

Real Salt Lake record

  • They have won 8 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 22 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Houston Dynamo wins 2Draws 4Real Salt Lake wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-14Real Salt LakeHouston DynamoMajor League Soccer3-0
2025-07-13Real Salt LakeHouston DynamoMajor League Soccer1-0
2025-03-16Houston DynamoReal Salt LakeMajor League Soccer1-2
2024-09-15Houston DynamoReal Salt LakeMajor League Soccer4-1
2024-08-06Houston DynamoReal Salt LakeLeagues Cup3-0
2024-07-04Real Salt LakeHouston DynamoMajor League Soccer3-2
2023-11-11Houston DynamoReal Salt LakeMajor League Soccer1-1
2023-11-07Real Salt LakeHouston DynamoMajor League Soccer1-1
2023-10-29Houston DynamoReal Salt LakeMajor League Soccer2-1
2023-08-27Real Salt LakeHouston DynamoMajor League Soccer0-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 48.1%, draw 25.7%, away 26.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.90 3.75 3.60
888Sport 1.95 3.40 3.50
Bet365 2.00 3.70 3.50
BetVictor 1.95 3.60 3.50
Betano 2.02 3.80 3.75
Betfair 1.91 3.60 4.00
Dafabet 2.02 3.70 3.60
Marathonbet 1.91 3.64 3.65
Pinnacle 2.01 3.77 3.59
SBO 2.00 3.34 3.24
Superbet 2.02 3.65 3.55
Unibet 1.85 3.80 3.75
William Hill 1.95 3.40 3.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.95 ▲ +0.25
X 3.65 ▼ -0.30
2 3.59 ▼ -0.74

17 snapshots recorded, from .