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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 24

Atlanta United FC vs Orlando City SC

2 – 3 Full time

7′D. Brekalo
26′A. Griezmann
42′D. Brekalo
46′A. FortuneA. Gill
46′G. DorseyZ. Taifi
58′I. Angulo
64′T. MuyumbaL. Brennan
67′T. Jacob
71′B. RheinT. Spicer
74′M. OjedaM. Pasalic
74′J. GerbetW. Cartagena
77′A. Griezmann
78′A. MiranchukF. Picault
78′P. DiazE. Mihaj
78′B. EmboloSergio Santos
79′D. BrekaloIago Teodoro
88′J. Ellis
90′T. Spicer

Mercedes-Benz Stadium, AtlantaReferee: Armando Villarrea, USA

Atlanta United FC 41%
Draw 24%
Orlando City SC 34%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

15 Shots 14
2 Shots on target 7
40 Possession % 60
7 Corners 5
9 Fouls 9
5 Offsides 3
4 Saves 1
376 Accurate passes 586

Atlanta United FC vs Orlando City SC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atlanta United FC vs Orlando City SC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAtlanta United FCDrawOrlando City SC
Model34.9%24.2%40.9%
Market43.7%24.4%31.9%
Final41.5%24.3%34.2%
Edge-8.8%-0.2%+9.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Atlanta United FC

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Atlanta United ↓ / Orlando City S → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 10% 8% 2 8% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 67%
No goals 4%

Atlanta United FC and Orlando City SC expected goals

Atlanta United FC 1.66
Orlando City SC 1.81

Total expected goals: 3.47

Atlanta United FC and Orlando City SC attack and defence ratings

Atlanta United FC

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 1.14 +14%

Orlando City SC

Attack 1.16 +16%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atlanta United FC vs Orlando City SC: result vs prediction

Atlanta United FC 2 – 3 Orlando City SC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 24 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Atlanta United FC vs Orlando City SC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atlanta United FC 41.5% 2.41 -8.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 67.4% 1.48 — —
Both teams to score Yes 68.7% 1.46 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.7% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 65.1% 1.54 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Atlanta United FC41.5%
Draw24.3%
Orlando City SC34.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567.4%
Under 2.532.6%
Both teams to scoreYes68.7%
No31.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)65.8%
12 (either side)75.7%
X2 (draw or away)58.5%
Handicap -1Atlanta United FC win17.9%
Push (exactly one goal)17.0%
Loss65.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.3%
1-28.5%
2-17.8%

Atlanta United FC vs Orlando City SC stats

Atlanta United FC and Orlando City SC recent form

newest first
Atlanta United FC DLWWWL
Orlando City SC WDWLDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atlanta United FC and Orlando City SC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atlanta United FC record

  • They have won 6 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 23 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Orlando City SC record

  • They have won 8 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atlanta United FC vs Orlando City SC head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

3Atlanta United FC wins 2Draws 4Orlando City SC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-19Orlando City SCAtlanta United FCUS Open Cup4-1
2026-05-16Orlando City SCAtlanta United FCMajor League Soccer1-1
2025-05-28Atlanta United FCOrlando City SCMajor League Soccer3-2
2025-04-26Orlando City SCAtlanta United FCMajor League Soccer3-0
2024-11-24Orlando City SCAtlanta United FCMajor League Soccer1-0
2024-10-20Orlando City SCAtlanta United FCMajor League Soccer1-2
2024-03-17Atlanta United FCOrlando City SCMajor League Soccer2-0
2023-07-15Atlanta United FCOrlando City SCMajor League Soccer1-2
2023-05-27Orlando City SCAtlanta United FCMajor League Soccer1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Atlanta United FC vs Orlando City SC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 43.7%, draw 24.4%, away 31.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.12 3.90 2.94
888Sport 2.10 3.60 2.90
Bet365 2.15 3.90 3.00
BetVictor 2.15 3.90 2.88
Betano 2.20 3.90 2.95
Betfair 2.20 3.75 2.90
Dafabet 2.18 3.95 3.05
Marathonbet 2.15 3.80 2.91
Pinnacle 2.22 3.99 2.96
SBO 2.08 3.57 2.85
Superbet 2.17 3.85 3.05
Unibet 2.05 3.80 3.10
William Hill 2.10 3.60 2.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.15 ▲ +0.04
X 3.85 —
2 2.94 ▼ -0.01

17 snapshots recorded, from .