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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 24

Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati

5 – 0 Full time

16′O. Nwobodo
40′Evander
43′Q. Sullivan
45′B. Damiani
46′EvanderA. Powell
46′K. DenkeyT. Barlow
46′E. EcheniqueN. Hagglund
49′B. Damiani
61′B. Damiani
62′G. ValenzuelaT. Anunga
66′E. AlladohM. Iloski
66′J. LukicJ. Bueno
66′Q. SullivanI. Vassilev
75′B. DamianiM. Jakupovic
75′C. SullivanA. Bedoya
75′A. JabbariS. Gidi
87′T. Anunga
89′M. Iloski

Subaru Park, ChesterReferee: Joseph Dickerson, USA

Philadelphia Union 56%
Draw 21%
FC Cincinnati 22%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

20 Shots 1
6 Shots on target 0
66 Possession % 34
7 Corners 1
16 Fouls 6
2 Offsides 1
0 Saves 1
526 Accurate passes 213

Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPhiladelphia UnionDrawFC Cincinnati
Model57.0%20.1%22.9%
Market56.1%21.6%22.3%
Final56.3%21.3%22.4%
Edge+0.9%-1.5%+0.6%

Confidence: Low

Why Philadelphia Union

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.48 vs 1.57.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Philadelphia U ↓ / FC Cincinnati → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 5% 2 5% 8% 7% 3 4% 7% 5% 4+ 5% 8% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 92%
3+ goals 77%
No goals 2%

Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati expected goals

Philadelphia Union 2.48
FC Cincinnati 1.57

Total expected goals: 4.05

Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati attack and defence ratings

Philadelphia Union

Attack 1.21 +21%
Defence 0.95 -5%

FC Cincinnati

Attack 1.21 +21%
Defence 1.18 +18%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati: result vs prediction

Philadelphia Union 5 – 0 FC Cincinnati

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 24 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Philadelphia Union 56.3% 1.78 +0.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 77.0% 1.30 — —
Both teams to score Yes 73.3% 1.37 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 78.7% 1.27 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 43.1% 2.32 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Philadelphia Union56.3%
Draw21.3%
FC Cincinnati22.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.577.0%
Under 2.523.0%
Both teams to scoreYes73.3%
No26.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)77.6%
12 (either side)78.7%
X2 (draw or away)43.7%
Handicap -1Philadelphia Union win37.3%
Push (exactly one goal)19.7%
Loss43.1%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.4%
1-17.4%
3-17.0%

Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati stats

Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati recent form

newest first
Philadelphia Union WWDDWL
FC Cincinnati LDWDLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati going into this match

league record before kick-off

Philadelphia Union record

  • They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Cincinnati record

  • They have won 8 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 22 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Philadelphia Union wins 1Draws 6FC Cincinnati wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-08-30FC CincinnatiPhiladelphia UnionMajor League Soccer0-1
2025-03-02Philadelphia UnionFC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer4-1
2025-02-07FC CincinnatiPhiladelphia UnionFriendlies Clubs4-1
2024-10-20Philadelphia UnionFC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer1-2
2024-08-13FC CincinnatiPhiladelphia UnionLeagues Cup2-4
2024-06-19FC CincinnatiPhiladelphia UnionMajor League Soccer4-3
2024-02-09FC CincinnatiPhiladelphia UnionFriendlies Clubs4-3
2023-11-26FC CincinnatiPhiladelphia UnionMajor League Soccer1-0
2023-09-16Philadelphia UnionFC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer2-2
2023-04-08FC CincinnatiPhiladelphia UnionMajor League Soccer1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 56.1%, draw 21.6%, away 22.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.67 4.55 4.00
888Sport 1.67 4.00 4.00
Bet365 1.67 4.33 4.50
BetVictor 1.67 4.33 4.20
Betano 1.70 4.50 4.60
Betfair 1.70 4.40 4.10
Dafabet 1.73 4.40 4.30
Marathonbet 1.66 4.33 4.20
Pinnacle 1.70 4.50 4.32
SBO 1.67 4.03 3.85
Superbet 1.72 4.30 4.20
Unibet 1.70 4.20 4.10
William Hill 1.67 4.00 4.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.67 ▼ -0.03
X 4.33 ▲ +0.08
2 4.20 ▲ +0.20

17 snapshots recorded, from .