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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 24

Minnesota United FC vs FC Dallas

1 – 2 Full time

7′Osaze Urhoghide
62′Kaick da Silva Ferreira
63′Marcus CaldeiraTomás Chancalay
63′Jefferson Abel Díaz BeleñoCarlos Harvey
69′Nectarios Triantis
73′Kelvin Yeboah
74′Kelvin YeboahMaurice Malone
74′Nectarios TriantisOwen Gene
77′Christian CappisSantiago Moreno
77′Ran BinyaminHerman Johansson
83′Ramiro
84′Logan FarringtonSamuel Sarver
84′Wil TrappMauricio González Carabalí
84′Santiago Moreno
89′Owen Gene

Allianz Field, Saint PaulReferee: Ricardo Fierro, USA

Minnesota United FC 47%
Draw 24%
FC Dallas 29%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

8 Shots 13
2 Shots on target 6
52 Possession % 48
2 Corners 6
13 Fouls 21
2 Offsides 1
3 Saves 1
375 Accurate passes 349

Minnesota United FC vs FC Dallas overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Minnesota United FC vs FC Dallas

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMinnesota United FCDrawFC Dallas
Model55.1%18.6%26.3%
Market44.3%25.7%30.0%
Final47.0%23.9%29.1%
Edge+10.8%-7.2%-3.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Minnesota United FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.80 vs 1.98.
  • The market prices Minnesota United FC below the model: +10.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Minnesota Unit ↓ / FC Dallas → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 5% 2 7% 6% 4% 3 6% 6% 4+ 4% 8% 8% 6% 4%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 99%
2+ goals 96%
3+ goals 86%
No goals 1%

Minnesota United FC and FC Dallas expected goals

Minnesota United FC 2.80
FC Dallas 1.98

Total expected goals: 4.78

Minnesota United FC and FC Dallas attack and defence ratings

Minnesota United FC

Attack 1.24 +24%
Defence 1.16 +16%

FC Dallas

Attack 1.25 +25%
Defence 1.31 +31%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Minnesota United FC vs FC Dallas: result vs prediction

Minnesota United FC 1 – 2 FC Dallas

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 24 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Minnesota United FC vs FC Dallas markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Minnesota United FC 47.0% 2.13 +10.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 85.6% 1.17 — —
Both teams to score Yes 81.4% 1.23 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.1% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 44.9% 2.23 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Minnesota United FC47.0%
Draw23.9%
FC Dallas29.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.585.6%
Under 2.514.4%
Both teams to scoreYes81.4%
No18.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)70.9%
12 (either side)76.1%
X2 (draw or away)53.0%
Handicap -1Minnesota United FC win37.0%
Push (exactly one goal)18.2%
Loss44.9%
Correct score (top 3)2-16.5%
2-26.4%
3-16.1%

Minnesota United FC vs FC Dallas stats

Minnesota United FC and FC Dallas recent form

newest first
Minnesota United FC LDWLDW
FC Dallas WDLWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Minnesota United FC and FC Dallas going into this match

league record before kick-off

Minnesota United FC record

  • They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

FC Dallas record

  • They have won 10 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 23 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).

Minnesota United FC vs FC Dallas head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Minnesota United FC wins 4Draws 2FC Dallas wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-23FC DallasMinnesota United FCMajor League Soccer0-1
2025-07-05FC DallasMinnesota United FCMajor League Soccer1-2
2025-04-20Minnesota United FCFC DallasMajor League Soccer0-0
2024-06-20FC DallasMinnesota United FCMajor League Soccer5-3
2024-06-09Minnesota United FCFC DallasMajor League Soccer1-1
2023-05-01Minnesota United FCFC DallasMajor League Soccer0-0
2023-02-26FC DallasMinnesota United FCMajor League Soccer0-1
2022-10-18FC DallasMinnesota United FCMajor League Soccer1-1
2022-09-03Minnesota United FCFC DallasMajor League Soccer0-3
2022-05-22FC DallasMinnesota United FCMajor League Soccer1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Minnesota United FC vs FC Dallas odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 44.3%, draw 25.7%, away 30.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.02 3.85 3.20
888Sport 2.10 3.60 2.90
Bet365 2.15 3.60 3.25
BetVictor 2.10 3.75 3.10
Betano 2.20 3.80 3.25
Betfair 2.15 3.60 3.10
Dafabet 2.18 3.70 3.20
Marathonbet 2.11 3.65 3.08
Pinnacle 2.19 3.81 3.13
SBO 2.12 3.38 2.91
Superbet 2.17 3.65 3.15
Unibet 2.00 3.70 3.30
William Hill 2.10 3.60 2.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.12 ▲ +0.15
X 3.65 ▼ -0.05
2 3.13 ▼ -0.27

17 snapshots recorded, from .