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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 23

Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United FC

5 – 4 Full time

11′V. Janssen
20′D. Callender
23′Michael Boxall
26′V. Janssen
32′M. Caldeira
36′J. CaicedoJ. Ortiz
37′A. Markanich
45′Finn Surman
50′M. Caldeira
55′V. Janssen
68′V. JanssenD. Chara
68′A. LassiterAntony
71′K. Velde
72′W. TrappN. Triantis
72′M. CaldeiraT. Chancalay
74′Jefferson Díaz
78′K. YeboahM. Malone
81′E. MillerJ. Waterman
82′D. Da CostaI. Smith
88′O. GeneC. Harvey
88′A. MarkanichM. Gonzalez
90′Morris Duggan
90′T. Chancalay

Providence Park, PortlandReferee: Filip Dujic, Canada

Portland Timbers 49%
Draw 23%
Minnesota United FC 28%

Confidence: Low  ·  model-only, no market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 17
5 Shots on target 8
49 Possession % 51
4 Corners 3
12 Fouls 18
2 Offsides 0
4 Saves 1
465 Accurate passes 482

Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPortland TimbersDrawMinnesota United FC
Model49.0%22.7%28.2%
Market———
Final49.0%22.7%28.2%
Edge———

Confidence: Low

Why Portland Timbers

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.57.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Portland Timbe ↓ / Minnesota Unit → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 9% 7% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 6% 5% 4+ 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 71%
No goals 3%

Portland Timbers and Minnesota United FC expected goals

Portland Timbers 2.10
Minnesota United FC 1.57

Total expected goals: 3.67

Portland Timbers and Minnesota United FC attack and defence ratings

Portland Timbers

Attack 1.28 +28%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Minnesota United FC

Attack 1.12 +12%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United FC: result vs prediction

Portland Timbers 5 – 4 Minnesota United FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 23 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Portland Timbers 49.0% 2.04 — —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 70.9% 1.41 — —
Both teams to score Yes 70.4% 1.42 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 77.3% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 50.8% 1.97 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Portland Timbers49.0%
Draw22.7%
Minnesota United FC28.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570.9%
Under 2.529.1%
Both teams to scoreYes70.4%
No29.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.8%
12 (either side)77.3%
X2 (draw or away)51.0%
Handicap -1Portland Timbers win29.4%
Push (exactly one goal)19.8%
Loss50.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.2%
2-18.8%
2-26.9%

Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United FC stats

Portland Timbers and Minnesota United FC recent form

newest first
Portland Timbers LDWLWL
Minnesota United FC DWLDWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Portland Timbers and Minnesota United FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Portland Timbers record

  • They have won 9 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 23 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Minnesota United FC record

  • They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Portland Timbers wins 3Draws 4Minnesota United FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-19Minnesota United FCPortland TimbersMajor League Soccer2-0
2025-08-31Minnesota United FCPortland TimbersMajor League Soccer1-1
2025-07-20Portland TimbersMinnesota United FCMajor League Soccer1-1
2024-06-30Portland TimbersMinnesota United FCMajor League Soccer3-2
2024-05-19Minnesota United FCPortland TimbersMajor League Soccer2-1
2023-07-02Minnesota United FCPortland TimbersMajor League Soccer4-1
2023-05-21Portland TimbersMinnesota United FCMajor League Soccer0-1
2022-09-11Portland TimbersMinnesota United FCMajor League Soccer1-0
2022-07-30Minnesota United FCPortland TimbersMajor League Soccer4-4
2021-11-21Portland TimbersMinnesota United FCMajor League Soccer3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 44.1%, draw 25.3%, away 30.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.08 3.90 3.00
Bet365 2.20 3.60 3.10
BetVictor 2.20 3.75 2.90
Betano 2.05 3.80 3.35
Betfair 2.00 3.80 3.20
Dafabet 2.16 3.75 3.20
Marathonbet 2.12 3.56 3.12
Pinnacle 2.26 3.78 3.01
SBO 2.16 3.21 2.65
Unibet 2.05 3.80 3.10
William Hill 2.15 3.40 3.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.20 ▲ +0.29
X 3.60 ▼ -0.30
2 3.01 ▼ -0.49

23 snapshots recorded, from .