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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 24

Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City

2 – 2 Full time

1′Rafael Navarro
18′D. Da CostaD. Chara
31′D. Polvara
32′K. Velde
36′J. Orozco
45′T. Totland
46′J. OrozcoL. MacNaughton
51′Rafael Navarro
58′E. Miller
65′D. PolvaraF. Fall
65′S. JeongS. Becher
65′E. MillerR. Hernandez
65′A. LassiterAntony
67′Rafael Navarro
80′Rafael SantosM. Joyner
80′A. MatanC. Holse
81′K. MillerI. Smith
81′J. OrtizO. Fernandez
89′K. Velde
89′Rafael NavarroD. Downs
90′V. JanssenG. Guerra

Providence Park, PortlandReferee: Fotis Bazakos, USA

Portland Timbers 40%
Draw 24%
St. Louis City 36%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

16 Shots 10
3 Shots on target 4
51 Possession % 49
9 Corners 2
10 Fouls 21
3 Offsides 1
2 Saves 1
387 Accurate passes 380

Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPortland TimbersDrawSt. Louis City
Model38.0%21.8%40.2%
Market41.0%24.8%34.3%
Final40.2%24.0%35.7%
Edge-2.9%-3.0%+5.9%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Portland Timbe ↓ / St. Louis City → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 7% 5% 4% 2 7% 7% 5% 4% 3 5% 5% 4+ 4% 4%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 92%
3+ goals 78%
No goals 2%

Portland Timbers and St. Louis City expected goals

Portland Timbers 2.03
St. Louis City 2.08

Total expected goals: 4.11

Portland Timbers and St. Louis City attack and defence ratings

Portland Timbers

Attack 1.40 +40%
Defence 1.19 +19%

St. Louis City

Attack 1.28 +28%
Defence 0.84 -16%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City: result vs prediction

Portland Timbers 2 – 2 St. Louis City

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 24 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Portland Timbers 40.2% 2.49 -2.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 77.7% 1.29 — —
Both teams to score Yes 76.7% 1.30 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.0% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 62.0% 1.61 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Portland Timbers40.2%
Draw24.0%
St. Louis City35.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.577.7%
Under 2.522.3%
Both teams to scoreYes76.7%
No23.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)64.3%
12 (either side)76.0%
X2 (draw or away)59.8%
Handicap -1Portland Timbers win21.3%
Push (exactly one goal)16.8%
Loss62.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-17.6%
2-27.3%
1-27.2%

Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City stats

Portland Timbers and St. Louis City recent form

newest first
Portland Timbers WLDWLW
St. Louis City WDWDWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Portland Timbers and St. Louis City going into this match

league record before kick-off

Portland Timbers record

  • They have won 9 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 23 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

St. Louis City record

  • They have won 10 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 23 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City head-to-head

Last 7 meetings

2Portland Timbers wins 2Draws 3St. Louis City wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-07-13St. Louis CityPortland TimbersMajor League Soccer2-1
2025-06-08Portland TimbersSt. Louis CityMajor League Soccer2-1
2024-08-25Portland TimbersSt. Louis CityMajor League Soccer4-4
2024-08-10St. Louis CityPortland TimbersLeagues Cup3-1
2024-06-09St. Louis CityPortland TimbersMajor League Soccer0-0
2023-04-30St. Louis CityPortland TimbersMajor League Soccer1-2
2023-03-12Portland TimbersSt. Louis CityMajor League Soccer1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 41.0%, draw 24.8%, away 34.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.22 3.85 2.78
888Sport 2.25 3.50 2.70
Bet365 2.38 3.90 2.70
BetVictor 2.30 3.80 2.70
Betano 2.30 3.90 2.77
Betfair 2.20 3.90 2.90
Dafabet 2.40 3.85 2.75
Marathonbet 2.27 3.70 2.77
Pinnacle 2.37 3.94 2.75
SBO 2.32 3.49 2.54
Superbet 2.40 3.75 2.72
Unibet 2.16 3.75 2.90
William Hill 2.25 3.50 2.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.30 ▲ +0.28
X 3.80 ▲ +0.05
2 2.75 ▼ -0.45

17 snapshots recorded, from .