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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 21

FC Cincinnati vs Seattle Sounders

1 – 1 Full time

TQL Stadium, CincinnatiReferee: Drew Fischer, Canada

FC Cincinnati 62%
Draw 19%
Seattle Sounders 18%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

FC Cincinnati vs Seattle Sounders overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Cincinnati vs Seattle Sounders

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC CincinnatiDrawSeattle Sounders
Model75.4%14.8%9.8%
Market58.1%20.9%20.9%
Final62.4%19.4%18.1%
Edge+17.2%-6.1%-11.1%

Confidence: Low

Why FC Cincinnati

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.95 vs 1.05.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Cincinnati below the model: +17.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Cincinnati ↓ / Seattle Sounde → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 2 8% 8% 3 8% 8% 4+ 12% 13% 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 91%
3+ goals 76%
No goals 2%

FC Cincinnati and Seattle Sounders expected goals

FC Cincinnati 2.95
Seattle Sounders 1.05

Total expected goals: 4.00

FC Cincinnati and Seattle Sounders attack and defence ratings

FC Cincinnati

Attack 1.46 +46%
Defence 1.09 +9%

Seattle Sounders

Attack 0.71 -29%
Defence 1.18 +18%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Cincinnati vs Seattle Sounders: result vs prediction

FC Cincinnati 1 – 1 Seattle Sounders

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 21 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

FC Cincinnati vs Seattle Sounders markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Cincinnati 62.4% 1.60 +17.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 76.2% 1.31 — —
Both teams to score Yes 62.1% 1.61 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 81.9% 1.22 — —
Handicap -1 FC Cincinnati win 56.5% 1.77 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Cincinnati62.4%
Draw19.4%
Seattle Sounders18.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576.2%
Under 2.523.8%
Both teams to scoreYes62.1%
No37.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)81.9%
12 (either side)80.6%
X2 (draw or away)37.6%
Handicap -1FC Cincinnati win56.5%
Push (exactly one goal)18.8%
Loss24.6%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.4%
3-18.2%
2-08.0%

FC Cincinnati vs Seattle Sounders stats

FC Cincinnati and Seattle Sounders recent form

newest first
FC Cincinnati WDLWWW
Seattle Sounders LLLWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Cincinnati and Seattle Sounders going into this match

league record before kick-off

FC Cincinnati record

  • They have won 8 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 22 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Seattle Sounders record

  • They have won 7 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 21 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 21 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

FC Cincinnati vs Seattle Sounders head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

FC Cincinnati vs Seattle Sounders odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 57.8%, draw 21.1%, away 21.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.84 4.10 3.50
888Sport 1.67 4.33 3.80
Bet365 1.65 4.50 4.75
BetVictor 1.60 4.40 4.50
Betano 1.65 4.75 4.75
Betfair 1.62 4.50 4.50
Dafabet 1.65 4.60 4.60
Marathonbet 1.60 4.45 4.50
Pinnacle 1.66 4.66 4.56
SBO 1.57 4.24 4.34
Superbet 1.64 4.55 4.50
Unibet 1.61 4.35 4.50
William Hill 1.57 4.50 4.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.62 —
X 4.50 —
2 4.50 ▼ -0.10

2 snapshots recorded, from .