Monterrey
vs
Chicago Fire
2 – 1 Full time
Monterrey vs Chicago Fire overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Monterrey vs Chicago Fire
| Probability | Monterrey | Draw | Chicago Fire |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.9% | 24.6% | 29.5% |
| Market | 33.7% | 25.6% | 40.7% |
| Final | 36.7% | 25.4% | 37.9% |
| Edge | +12.2% | -1.0% | -11.2% |
Why Chicago Fire
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Monterrey and Chicago Fire expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.29
Monterrey and Chicago Fire attack and defence ratings
Monterrey
Chicago Fire
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Monterrey vs Chicago Fire: result vs prediction
Monterrey 2 – 1 Chicago Fire
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Monterrey vs Chicago Fire markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chicago Fire | 37.9% | 2.64 | -11.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.3% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monterrey | 36.7% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Chicago Fire | 37.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.3% |
| No | 34.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Chicago Fire win | 13.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.6% | |
| Loss | 70.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | |
| 1-2 | 7.2% |
Monterrey vs Chicago Fire stats
Monterrey and Chicago Fire recent form
| Monterrey |
LWWWLW |
| Chicago Fire |
DWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Monterrey and Chicago Fire going into this match
Monterrey record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Monterrey vs Chicago Fire head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Monterrey vs Chicago Fire odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.7%, draw 25.6%, away 40.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.78 | 3.65 | 2.28 |
| 1xBet | 2.74 | 3.68 | 2.32 |
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 2.87 | 3.65 | 2.32 |
| Betfair | 2.75 | 3.80 | 2.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.29 |
| Marathonbet | 2.73 | 3.68 | 2.30 |
| Pinnacle | 2.81 | 3.88 | 2.35 |
| SBO | 2.65 | 3.32 | 2.31 |
| Superbet | 2.87 | 3.65 | 2.35 |
| Unibet | 2.85 | 3.50 | 2.32 |
| William Hill | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .