Liga MX
·
Full time
·Apertura - 6
Monterrey
vs
Atletico San Luis
1 – 3 Full time
| 5′ | David Rodriguez | ||
| 36′ | Rafa Llorente | ||
| 45′ | Eduardo Águila | ||
| 46′ | Iker FimbresAlonso Aceves | ||
| 46′ | Jorge RodríguezÓliver Torres | ||
| 46′ | Uroš ĐurđevićOrbelín Pineda | ||
| 58′ | Alonso Aceves | ||
| 66′ | Anderson Duarte | ||
| 67′ | Érick AguirreDiego Rossi | ||
| 67′ | Omar GalvezHugo Cuypers | ||
| 68′ | Rafa LlorenteLeonardo Flores | ||
| 70′ | Miguel García ÁlvarezBenjamín Galindo | ||
| 73′ | Hugo Cuypers | ||
| 74′ | David RodriguezRoberto Meraz | ||
| 74′ | Anderson DuarteAldo Cruz | ||
| 79′ | Oscar Macías | ||
| 84′ | Oscar MacíasSebastián Pérez Bouquet |
Monterrey
64%
Draw
21%
Atletico San Luis
16%
Match stats
| 26 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 72 | Possession % | 28 |
| 14 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 1 | Saves | 7 |
| 604 | Accurate passes | 194 |
Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis
| Probability | Monterrey | Draw | Atletico San Luis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.6% | 17.3% | 12.1% |
| Market | 61.4% | 21.8% | 16.8% |
| Final | 63.7% | 20.7% | 15.6% |
| Edge | +9.2% | -4.5% | -4.7% |
Why Monterrey
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.66 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Monterrey below the model: +9.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
97%
2+ goals
89%
3+ goals
72%
No goals
3%
Monterrey and Atletico San Luis expected goals
Monterrey
2.66
Atletico San Luis
1.05
Total expected goals: 3.71
Monterrey and Atletico San Luis attack and defence ratings
Monterrey
Attack
1.21 +21%
Defence
1.01 +1%
Atletico San Luis
Attack
0.85 -15%
Defence
1.31 +31%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis: result vs prediction
Monterrey 1 – 3 Atletico San Luis
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Apertura - 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monterrey | 63.7% | 1.57 | +9.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.4% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Monterrey win | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monterrey | 63.7% |
| Draw | 20.7% | |
| Atletico San Luis | 15.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.4% |
| No | 38.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Monterrey win | 50.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 29.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.1% |
| 2-0 | 8.6% | |
| 3-1 | 8.0% |
Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis stats
Monterrey and Atletico San Luis recent form
| Monterrey |
WLWWWL |
| Atletico San Luis |
DLDLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Monterrey and Atletico San Luis going into this match
Monterrey record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Atletico San Luis record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Monterrey wins
2Draws
4Atletico San Luis wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Monterrey | Atletico San Luis | Liga MX | 1-2 |
| 2025-07-19 | Atletico San Luis | Monterrey | Liga MX | 0-1 |
| 2025-02-23 | Monterrey | Atletico San Luis | Liga MX | 3-1 |
| 2024-12-08 | Monterrey | Atletico San Luis | Liga MX | 5-1 |
| 2024-12-05 | Atletico San Luis | Monterrey | Liga MX | 2-1 |
| 2024-10-05 | Atletico San Luis | Monterrey | Liga MX | 1-0 |
| 2024-01-28 | Monterrey | Atletico San Luis | Liga MX | 3-1 |
| 2023-12-03 | Monterrey | Atletico San Luis | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2023-11-30 | Atletico San Luis | Monterrey | Liga MX | 1-0 |
| 2023-07-01 | Atletico San Luis | Monterrey | Liga MX | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.4%, draw 21.8%, away 16.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.55 | 4.33 | 5.20 |
| 1xBet | 1.51 | 4.25 | 5.69 |
| Bet365 | 1.55 | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.40 | 5.75 |
| Betano | 1.55 | 4.50 | 6.20 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.55 | 4.50 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.50 | 4.25 | 5.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.56 | 4.59 | 5.62 |
| SBO | 1.49 | 4.16 | 5.03 |
| Superbet | 1.54 | 4.45 | 5.30 |
| Unibet | 1.54 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.54 ▼ -0.17
X
4.33 ▲ +0.46
2
5.62 ▲ +1.28
13 snapshots recorded, from .