Toluca
vs
FC Juarez
4 – 0 Full time
| 10′ | Hélinho | ||
| 34′ | Jesus Murillo | ||
| 35′ | Hélinho | ||
| 45′ | Alexis VegaNicolás Castro | ||
| 45′ | Andres PereiraJesús Gallardo | ||
| 58′ | Francisco Nevarez | ||
| 65′ | Francisco NevarezManuel Mayorga | ||
| 65′ | MonchuGuilherme Castilho | ||
| 70′ | HélinhoFederico Viñas | ||
| 70′ | Franco RomeroFernando Arce | ||
| 73′ | Oswaldo Virgen | ||
| 74′ | Gilberto SepulvedaMadson de Souza Silva | ||
| 79′ | Federico Viñas | ||
| 81′ | José Luis RodríguezJuan Alexander Sigala García | ||
| 81′ | Oscar EstupiñanRicardo Oliveira | ||
| 81′ | Oswaldo VirgenAntonio Briseño |
Match stats
| 26 | Shots | 6 |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 65 | Possession % | 35 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 2 | Saves | 7 |
| 594 | Accurate passes | 282 |
Toluca vs FC Juarez overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Toluca vs FC Juarez
| Probability | Toluca | Draw | FC Juarez |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 79.8% | 13.8% | 6.5% |
| Market | 73.4% | 15.9% | 10.7% |
| Final | 75.0% | 15.4% | 9.7% |
| Edge | +6.4% | -2.2% | -4.3% |
Why Toluca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.84 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Toluca below the model: +6.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Toluca and FC Juarez expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.59
Toluca and FC Juarez attack and defence ratings
Toluca
FC Juarez
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Toluca vs FC Juarez: result vs prediction
Toluca 4 – 0 FC Juarez
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Apertura - 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Toluca vs FC Juarez markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toluca | 75.0% | 1.33 | +6.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.3% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Toluca win | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toluca | 75.0% |
| Draw | 15.4% | |
| FC Juarez | 9.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.2% |
| No | 49.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 25.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Toluca win | 60.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.1% | |
| Loss | 20.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.1% |
| 3-0 | 10.6% | |
| 2-1 | 8.3% |
Toluca vs FC Juarez stats
Toluca and FC Juarez recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Toluca and FC Juarez going into this match
Toluca record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
FC Juarez record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Toluca vs FC Juarez head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Toluca | FC Juarez | Liga MX | 3-1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Toluca | FC Juarez | Liga MX | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-27 | FC Juarez | Toluca | Liga MX | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-12 | FC Juarez | Toluca | Liga MX | 0-2 |
| 2025-02-22 | FC Juarez | Toluca | Liga MX | 0-4 |
| 2024-07-14 | Toluca | FC Juarez | Liga MX | 3-2 |
| 2024-03-09 | FC Juarez | Toluca | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2023-07-16 | Toluca | FC Juarez | Liga MX | 2-4 |
| 2023-04-23 | Toluca | FC Juarez | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2022-10-09 | Toluca | FC Juarez | Liga MX | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Toluca vs FC Juarez odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 73.4%, draw 15.9%, away 10.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.28 | 5.90 | 8.50 |
| 1xBet | 1.28 | 5.60 | 8.75 |
| Bet365 | 1.30 | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.29 | 5.75 | 9.00 |
| Betano | 1.32 | 6.10 | 10.00 |
| Betfair | 1.22 | 6.00 | 9.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.31 | 6.00 | 8.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.27 | 5.60 | 8.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.30 | 6.05 | 8.86 |
| SBO | 1.28 | 5.42 | 7.43 |
| Superbet | 1.30 | 5.90 | 8.10 |
| Unibet | 1.26 | 5.50 | 9.00 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.00 | 7.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .