Toluca
vs
Austin
2 – 0 Full time
Toluca vs Austin overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Toluca vs Austin
| Probability | Toluca | Draw | Austin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.9% | 26.1% | 17.0% |
| Market | 62.6% | 22.2% | 15.2% |
| Final | 61.2% | 23.2% | 15.6% |
| Edge | -5.7% | +3.9% | +1.8% |
Why Toluca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Toluca and Austin expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.53
Toluca and Austin attack and defence ratings
Toluca
Austin
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Toluca vs Austin: result vs prediction
Toluca 2 – 0 Austin
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Toluca vs Austin markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toluca | 61.2% | 1.63 | -5.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.6% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.8% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.4% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.1% | 2.32 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toluca | 61.2% |
| Draw | 23.2% | |
| Austin | 15.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.2% |
| No | 52.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Toluca win | 32.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.5% | |
| Loss | 43.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 12.4% |
| 1-1 | 12.4% | |
| 2-0 | 11.5% |
Toluca vs Austin stats
Toluca and Austin recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Toluca and Austin going into this match
Toluca record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Toluca vs Austin head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Toluca vs Austin odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.6%, draw 22.2%, away 15.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.53 | 4.10 | 5.90 |
| 1xBet | 1.48 | 4.20 | 6.51 |
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 4.10 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.45 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.30 | 6.50 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.50 | 4.30 | 5.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.47 | 4.20 | 6.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.52 | 4.34 | 6.15 |
| SBO | 1.46 | 4.07 | 5.70 |
| Superbet | 1.52 | 4.35 | 6.00 |
| Unibet | 1.49 | 4.00 | 6.75 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 3.80 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .