Necaxa
vs
Cruz Azul
1 – 3 Full time
Necaxa vs Cruz Azul overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Necaxa vs Cruz Azul
| Probability | Necaxa | Draw | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.5% | 27.6% | 34.8% |
| Market | 27.5% | 26.1% | 46.4% |
| Final | 30.0% | 26.5% | 43.5% |
| Edge | +10.1% | +1.5% | -11.6% |
Why Cruz Azul
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Necaxa and Cruz Azul expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.80
Necaxa and Cruz Azul attack and defence ratings
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Necaxa vs Cruz Azul: result vs prediction
Necaxa 1 – 3 Cruz Azul
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Apertura - 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Necaxa vs Cruz Azul markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cruz Azul | 43.5% | 2.30 | -11.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Necaxa | 30.0% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Cruz Azul | 43.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.0% |
| No | 42.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cruz Azul win | 16.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.4% | |
| Loss | 65.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | |
| 1-2 | 8.2% |
Necaxa vs Cruz Azul stats
Necaxa and Cruz Azul recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Necaxa and Cruz Azul going into this match
Necaxa record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cruz Azul record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
Necaxa vs Cruz Azul head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | Cruz Azul | Necaxa | Liga MX | 4-1 |
| 2025-10-22 | Necaxa | Cruz Azul | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2025-01-29 | Necaxa | Cruz Azul | Liga MX | 1-3 |
| 2024-10-05 | Cruz Azul | Necaxa | Liga MX | 3-0 |
| 2024-03-16 | Cruz Azul | Necaxa | Liga MX | 1-2 |
| 2023-10-05 | Necaxa | Cruz Azul | Liga MX | 1-3 |
| 2023-01-22 | Necaxa | Cruz Azul | Liga MX | 1-0 |
| 2022-12-13 | Cruz Azul | Necaxa | Copa por México | 0-0 |
| 2022-07-30 | Cruz Azul | Necaxa | Liga MX | 1-0 |
| 2022-05-07 | Cruz Azul | Necaxa | Liga MX | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Necaxa vs Cruz Azul odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.5%, draw 26.1%, away 46.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.35 | 3.65 | 2.00 |
| 1xBet | 3.38 | 3.48 | 2.04 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.50 | 3.60 | 2.02 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 3.75 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.55 | 3.60 | 2.04 |
| Marathonbet | 3.38 | 3.48 | 2.02 |
| Pinnacle | 3.35 | 3.69 | 2.08 |
| SBO | 3.18 | 3.26 | 1.97 |
| Superbet | 3.50 | 3.60 | 2.02 |
| Unibet | 3.40 | 3.55 | 1.95 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .