Atlante FC
vs
Leon
1 – 1 Full time
Atlante FC vs Leon overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atlante FC vs Leon
| Probability | Atlante FC | Draw | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.3% | 26.5% | 54.2% |
| Market | 37.1% | 27.8% | 35.1% |
| Final | 32.6% | 27.5% | 39.9% |
| Edge | -17.8% | -1.3% | +19.1% |
Why Leon
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Leon below the model: +19.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atlante FC and Leon expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.60
Atlante FC and Leon attack and defence ratings
Atlante FC
Leon
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Atlante FC vs Leon: result vs prediction
Atlante FC 1 – 1 Leon
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Apertura - 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atlante FC vs Leon markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leon | 39.9% | 2.51 | +19.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.0% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.8% | 2.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlante FC | 32.6% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Leon | 39.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.0% |
| No | 50.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Leon win | 30.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.8% | |
| Loss | 45.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 0-1 | 11.4% | |
| 0-2 | 10.5% |
Atlante FC vs Leon stats
Atlante FC and Leon recent form
| Atlante FC |
LDLLWW |
| Leon |
WWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atlante FC and Leon going into this match
Atlante FC record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Leon record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlante FC vs Leon head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Atlante FC vs Leon odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.1%, draw 27.8%, away 35.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.46 | 3.50 | 2.64 |
| 1xBet | 2.51 | 3.26 | 2.67 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.63 |
| Betano | 2.60 | 3.25 | 2.72 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.45 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.51 | 3.26 | 2.67 |
| Pinnacle | 2.57 | 3.36 | 2.76 |
| SBO | 2.39 | 3.12 | 2.54 |
| Superbet | 2.55 | 3.45 | 2.65 |
| Unibet | 2.50 | 3.35 | 2.55 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .