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Liga MX · Full time ·Apertura - 7

Atlas vs Atlante FC

1 – 1 Full time

7′Luís André Leite Esteves
14′Eugenio Pizzuto
45′Armando EscobarMartín Fernández
48′Martín Sarrafiore
57′Ryan MmaeeSergio Hernández
58′Jorge RodríguezMilton Valenzuela
70′Aarón QuirósDiogo Osmar Bagüí Tobar
70′Luis PuenteJoaquín Alejandro Moxica Chapa
75′Eduardo Tercero
77′Aldo Rocha
80′Joaquín Alejandro Moxica Chapa
81′Arturo GonzálezJ. Serrato
86′Rodrigo Schlegel
87′Aldo RochaPaulo Ramirez
90′Walter PortalesJuan Carrera
90′Cristóbal AlfaroGilberto Adame

Estadio Jalisco, GuadalajaraReferee: I. Lopez

Atlas 49%
Draw 28%
Atlante FC 23%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

16 Shots 9
3 Shots on target 2
64 Possession % 36
3 Corners 1
19 Fouls 16
1 Offsides 1
1 Saves 2
417 Accurate passes 218

Atlas vs Atlante FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atlas vs Atlante FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAtlasDrawAtlante FC
Model53.3%27.7%19.0%
Market47.7%28.3%24.0%
Final49.1%28.1%22.8%
Edge+5.5%-0.6%-4.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Atlas

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 0.85.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Atlas below the model: +5.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Atlas ↓ / Atlante FC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 1 13% 13% 2 11% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 71%
3+ goals 44%
No goals 10%

Atlas and Atlante FC expected goals

Atlas 1.57
Atlante FC 0.85

Total expected goals: 2.42

Atlas and Atlante FC attack and defence ratings

Atlas

Attack 0.87 -13%
Defence 0.97 -3%

Atlante FC

Attack 0.71 -29%
Defence 1.09 +9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atlas vs Atlante FC: result vs prediction

Atlas 1 – 1 Atlante FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Apertura - 7 fixtures

Liga MX

Before and after this match

Atlas vs Atlante FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atlas 49.1% 2.04 +5.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 56.4% 1.77 — —
Both teams to score No 53.5% 1.87 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 77.2% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.9% 2.13 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Atlas49.1%
Draw28.1%
Atlante FC22.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543.6%
Under 2.556.4%
Both teams to scoreYes46.5%
No53.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)77.2%
12 (either side)71.9%
X2 (draw or away)50.9%
Handicap -1Atlas win28.7%
Push (exactly one goal)24.4%
Loss46.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.0%
1-012.8%
2-011.0%

Atlas vs Atlante FC stats

Atlas and Atlante FC recent form

newest first
Atlas LWWWLL
Atlante FC DLDLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atlas and Atlante FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atlas record

  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.

Atlante FC record

  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atlas vs Atlante FC head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Atlas vs Atlante FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 47.5%, draw 27.5%, away 25.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.93 3.45 3.80
1xBet 1.97 3.24 3.88
Bet365 1.95 3.40 4.00
BetVictor 1.95 3.40 3.60
Betano 2.05 3.30 3.75
Betfair 2.00 3.50 3.60
Dafabet 2.03 3.40 3.75
Marathonbet 1.95 3.24 3.88
Pinnacle 2.00 3.34 4.16
SBO 2.02 3.07 3.04
Superbet 2.02 3.40 3.70
Unibet 1.91 3.45 3.65
William Hill 1.91 3.10 3.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.95 ▼ -0.12
X 3.29 ▲ +0.09
2 3.88 ▲ +0.36

13 snapshots recorded, from .