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Liga MX · Full time ·Apertura - 7

Tigres UANL vs Necaxa

1 – 1 Full time

5′Fernando Ordóñez
12′Owen González
19′Ricardo Monreal
21′Owen González
25′Nahuel Guzmán
35′Fernando OrdóñezMauro Laínez
40′Rodrigo Aguirre
58′Owen GonzálezKevin Ante
59′Ricardo MonrealDiego Sánchez
59′Henrique SimeoneCesar Araujo
61′Matias EspindolaJuan Torres
65′Pedro Pedraza
78′Raúl MartínezAlexis Peña
79′Javier RuizMiguel Rodriguez
79′Lorenzo FaravelliDanny Leyva
90′Diego LainezIsaias Galván

Estadio Universitario, San Nicolas de los GarzaReferee: K. Hernandez Andrade

Tigres UANL 58%
Draw 24%
Necaxa 18%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

22 Shots 16
6 Shots on target 4
58 Possession % 42
6 Corners 3
13 Fouls 11
3 Saves 5
437 Accurate passes 309

Tigres UANL vs Necaxa overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Tigres UANL vs Necaxa

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityTigres UANLDrawNecaxa
Model59.6%24.4%16.0%
Market58.0%23.8%18.2%
Final58.4%23.9%17.7%
Edge+1.6%+0.6%-2.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Tigres UANL

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 0.87.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Tigres UANL ↓ / Necaxa → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 11% 12% 2 11% 10% 3 7% 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 8%

Tigres UANL and Necaxa expected goals

Tigres UANL 1.85
Necaxa 0.87

Total expected goals: 2.72

Tigres UANL and Necaxa attack and defence ratings

Tigres UANL

Attack 0.91 -9%
Defence 0.82 -18%

Necaxa

Attack 0.86 -14%
Defence 1.22 +22%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Tigres UANL vs Necaxa: result vs prediction

Tigres UANL 1 – 1 Necaxa

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Apertura - 7 fixtures

Liga MX

Before and after this match

Tigres UANL vs Necaxa markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Tigres UANL 58.4% 1.71 +1.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 51.1% 1.96 — —
Both teams to score No 50.1% 2.00 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 82.3% 1.21 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 40.6% 2.46 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Tigres UANL58.4%
Draw23.9%
Necaxa17.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551.1%
Under 2.548.9%
Both teams to scoreYes49.9%
No50.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)82.3%
12 (either side)76.1%
X2 (draw or away)41.6%
Handicap -1Tigres UANL win35.5%
Push (exactly one goal)24.0%
Loss40.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.6%
2-011.3%
1-011.2%

Tigres UANL vs Necaxa stats

Tigres UANL and Necaxa recent form

newest first
Tigres UANL DWLDDD
Necaxa LDLWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Tigres UANL and Necaxa going into this match

league record before kick-off

Tigres UANL record

  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Necaxa record

  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Tigres UANL vs Necaxa head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7Tigres UANL wins 3Draws 0Necaxa wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-18NecaxaTigres UANLLiga MX1-1
2025-10-18Tigres UANLNecaxaLiga MX5-3
2025-05-12Tigres UANLNecaxaLiga MX2-2
2025-05-09NecaxaTigres UANLLiga MX0-0
2025-03-02NecaxaTigres UANLLiga MX1-2
2024-07-07Tigres UANLNecaxaLiga MX1-0
2024-04-21Tigres UANLNecaxaLiga MX5-2
2023-08-21NecaxaTigres UANLLiga MX0-3
2023-03-04NecaxaTigres UANLLiga MX0-1
2022-10-09Tigres UANLNecaxaLiga MX2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Tigres UANL vs Necaxa odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 58.9%, draw 22.9%, away 18.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.55 4.10 5.50
1xBet 1.61 3.92 5.09
Bet365 1.62 3.80 5.75
BetVictor 1.60 4.10 5.00
Betano 1.60 4.10 5.30
Betfair 1.55 4.33 5.50
Dafabet 1.59 4.30 5.40
Marathonbet 1.59 3.92 5.15
Pinnacle 1.65 4.16 5.19
SBO 1.50 3.78 4.69
Superbet 1.58 4.25 5.15
Unibet 1.57 4.10 4.90
William Hill 1.60 3.60 4.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.60 ▲ +0.04
X 3.92 ▼ -0.28
2 5.12 ▼ -0.04

13 snapshots recorded, from .