Necaxa
vs
Puebla
0 – 1 Full time
| 45′ | Juan Pablo Vargas | ||
| 45′ | Mauro Zaleta | ||
| 45′ | Fernando Monarrez | ||
| 45′ | Owen GonzálezKevin Ante | ||
| 45′ | Mauro ZaletaMiguel Rodriguez | ||
| 45′ | Omar MorenoIgnacio Maestro | ||
| 45′ | Fernando MonarrezOscar Villa | ||
| 49′ | Carlos Baltazar | ||
| 62′ | Kevin VelascoMathías Adrián Tomás Borges | ||
| 68′ | Matias EspindolaJuan Torres | ||
| 75′ | Lorenzo FaravelliDanny Leyva | ||
| 81′ | Brayan GarnicaLucas Camilo Azevedo da Silva | ||
| 86′ | Pedro PedrazaJuan Valencia | ||
| 89′ | Carlos BaltazarJosé Pachuca | ||
| 90′ | Mathías Adrián Tomás Borges | ||
| 90′ | Luis Jiménez |
Match stats
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 56 | Possession % | 44 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 3 | Saves | 2 |
| 372 | Accurate passes | 281 |
Necaxa vs Puebla overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Necaxa vs Puebla
| Probability | Necaxa | Draw | Puebla |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.3% | 23.9% | 25.8% |
| Market | 46.6% | 26.3% | 27.1% |
| Final | 47.5% | 25.7% | 26.8% |
| Edge | +3.8% | -2.4% | -1.3% |
Why Necaxa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.36.
- The market prices Necaxa below the model: +3.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Necaxa and Puebla expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.32
Necaxa and Puebla attack and defence ratings
Necaxa
Puebla
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Necaxa vs Puebla: result vs prediction
Necaxa 0 – 1 Puebla
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Apertura - 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Necaxa vs Puebla markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Necaxa | 47.5% | 2.10 | +3.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.9% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.7% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Necaxa | 47.5% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| Puebla | 26.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.9% |
| No | 35.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Necaxa win | 29.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 49.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 6.9% |
Necaxa vs Puebla stats
Necaxa and Puebla recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Necaxa and Puebla going into this match
Necaxa record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Puebla record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
Necaxa vs Puebla head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Puebla | Necaxa | Liga MX | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Necaxa | Puebla | Liga MX | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-19 | Puebla | Necaxa | Liga MX | 0-1 |
| 2024-07-13 | Necaxa | Puebla | Liga MX | 4-1 |
| 2024-01-20 | Puebla | Necaxa | Liga MX | 1-2 |
| 2023-10-08 | Necaxa | Puebla | Liga MX | 1-2 |
| 2023-04-15 | Necaxa | Puebla | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2022-08-17 | Puebla | Necaxa | Liga MX | 2-2 |
| 2022-04-23 | Puebla | Necaxa | Liga MX | 0-1 |
| 2021-10-16 | Necaxa | Puebla | Liga MX | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Necaxa vs Puebla odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.8%, draw 25.9%, away 27.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.97 | 3.55 | 3.55 |
| 1xBet | 2.00 | 3.48 | 3.49 |
| 888Sport | 1.91 | 3.25 | 3.30 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.75 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 3.65 | 3.40 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.04 | 3.65 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.98 | 3.48 | 3.48 |
| Pinnacle | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.64 |
| SBO | 1.99 | 3.16 | 3.04 |
| Superbet | 2.02 | 3.60 | 3.45 |
| Unibet | 1.94 | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .