Liga MX
·
Full time
·Apertura - 8
Leon
vs
Atletico San Luis
2 – 0 Full time
| 45′ | Sebastián Pérez BouquetLeonardo Flores | ||
| 48′ | Jesús Lara | ||
| 49′ | Diber Cambindo | ||
| 67′ | Ivan MorenoBryan Colula | ||
| 68′ | Jordi CortizoJose Alvarado | ||
| 68′ | Jose RodriguezFernando Beltran | ||
| 68′ | Román TorresBenjamín Galdames | ||
| 68′ | David RodriguezLuis Ronaldo Najera Reyna | ||
| 71′ | Diber Cambindo | ||
| 77′ | Rafael LlorenteFelipe Mora | ||
| 77′ | Sebastien Salles-lamongeRoberto Meraz | ||
| 80′ | Diber CambindoIsmael Díaz | ||
| 81′ | Roberto Meraz | ||
| 88′ | Daniel ArcilaEdgar Guerra | ||
| 90′ | Benjamín Galindo |
Leon
52%
Draw
25%
Atletico San Luis
23%
Match stats
| 23 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 42 | Possession % | 58 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 2 | Saves | 7 |
| 336 | Accurate passes | 514 |
Leon vs Atletico San Luis overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Leon vs Atletico San Luis
| Probability | Leon | Draw | Atletico San Luis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.7% | 21.7% | 15.6% |
| Market | 49.0% | 25.5% | 25.5% |
| Final | 52.4% | 24.5% | 23.0% |
| Edge | +13.7% | -3.9% | -9.9% |
Why Leon
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Leon below the model: +13.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
83%
3+ goals
61%
No goals
5%
Leon and Atletico San Luis expected goals
Leon
2.15
Atletico San Luis
1.00
Total expected goals: 3.15
Leon and Atletico San Luis attack and defence ratings
Leon
Attack
0.98 -2%
Defence
0.91 -9%
Atletico San Luis
Attack
0.89 -11%
Defence
1.32 +32%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Leon vs Atletico San Luis: result vs prediction
Leon 2 – 0 Atletico San Luis
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Apertura - 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Leon vs Atletico San Luis markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leon | 52.4% | 1.91 | +13.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.0% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Leon win | 40.3% | 2.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leon | 52.4% |
| Draw | 24.5% | |
| Atletico San Luis | 23.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% |
| No | 43.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Leon win | 40.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 37.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 2-0 | 9.9% | |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
Leon vs Atletico San Luis stats
Leon and Atletico San Luis recent form
| Leon |
LWLDWW |
| Atletico San Luis |
LWDLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Leon and Atletico San Luis going into this match
Leon record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico San Luis record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Leon vs Atletico San Luis head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
6Leon wins
0Draws
4Atletico San Luis wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Atletico San Luis | Leon | Liga MX | 1-2 |
| 2025-07-14 | Leon | Atletico San Luis | Liga MX | 0-1 |
| 2025-02-17 | Atletico San Luis | Leon | Liga MX | 1-2 |
| 2024-09-21 | Leon | Atletico San Luis | Liga MX | 1-0 |
| 2024-02-24 | Leon | Atletico San Luis | Liga MX | 1-0 |
| 2023-11-24 | Atletico San Luis | Leon | Liga MX | 3-2 |
| 2023-08-24 | Atletico San Luis | Leon | Liga MX | 3-0 |
| 2023-05-08 | Leon | Atletico San Luis | Liga MX | 1-3 |
| 2023-03-04 | Leon | Atletico San Luis | Liga MX | 2-0 |
| 2022-07-03 | Atletico San Luis | Leon | Liga MX | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Leon vs Atletico San Luis odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.5%, draw 25.7%, away 25.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.94 |
| 1xBet | 1.90 | 3.65 | 3.65 |
| 888Sport | 2.20 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| BetVictor | 1.90 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 1.98 | 3.60 | 3.65 |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.20 | 3.60 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 1.88 | 3.65 | 3.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.95 | 3.71 | 3.87 |
| SBO | 1.91 | 3.13 | 3.26 |
| Unibet | 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.85 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.25 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.90 ▼ -0.35
X
3.65 ▲ +0.20
2
3.65 ▲ +0.60
14 snapshots recorded, from .