Liga MX
·
Full time
·Apertura - 8
Toluca
vs
Atlas
5 – 2 Full time
| 19′ | Alexis Vega | ||
| 22′ | Jesús Angulo | ||
| 24′ | Manuel Capasso | ||
| 29′ | Federico Viñas | ||
| 45′ | Federico ViñasJoão Paulo Dias Fernandes | ||
| 45′ | Arturo GonzálezLuis Lopes | ||
| 45′ | Paulo RamirezSergio Hernández | ||
| 51′ | Florián Monzón | ||
| 53′ | João Paulo Dias Fernandes | ||
| 57′ | Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro | ||
| 57′ | Milton Valenzuela | ||
| 58′ | Hélio Júnio Nunes de CastroEverardo Lopez | ||
| 60′ | Jorge Rodríguez | ||
| 62′ | Jorge SánchezElías Montiel | ||
| 72′ | Jesús AnguloVíctor Guzmán | ||
| 72′ | Nicolás CastroPavel Pérez | ||
| 79′ | Luís André Leite EstevesJ. Serrato | ||
| 79′ | Luis Lopes | ||
| 81′ | J. Serrato | ||
| 83′ | Alexis VegaLuan Garcia | ||
| 87′ | Manuel CapassoAdrian Mora |
Toluca
67%
Draw
21%
Atlas
13%
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 54 | Possession % | 46 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Offsides | 0 |
| 0 | Saves | 2 |
| 391 | Accurate passes | 316 |
Toluca vs Atlas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Toluca vs Atlas
| Probability | Toluca | Draw | Atlas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71.9% | 20.3% | 7.9% |
| Market | 64.8% | 20.8% | 14.4% |
| Final | 66.6% | 20.7% | 12.7% |
| Edge | +7.0% | -0.5% | -6.5% |
Why Toluca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 0.54.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Toluca below the model: +7.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
92%
2+ goals
74%
3+ goals
48%
No goals
8%
Toluca and Atlas expected goals
Toluca
2.03
Atlas
0.54
Total expected goals: 2.57
Toluca and Atlas attack and defence ratings
Toluca
Attack
1.28 +28%
Defence
0.50 -50%
Atlas
Attack
0.88 -12%
Defence
0.96 -4%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Toluca vs Atlas: result vs prediction
Toluca 5 – 2 Atlas
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Apertura - 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Toluca vs Atlas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toluca | 66.6% | 1.50 | +7.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.3% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Toluca win | 47.0% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toluca | 66.6% |
| Draw | 20.7% | |
| Atlas | 12.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.1% |
| No | 62.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Toluca win | 47.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.9% | |
| Loss | 28.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 15.8% |
| 1-0 | 14.7% | |
| 3-0 | 10.7% |
Toluca vs Atlas stats
Toluca and Atlas recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Toluca and Atlas going into this match
Toluca record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Atlas record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Toluca vs Atlas head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Toluca wins
5Draws
1Atlas wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Toluca | Atlas | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Atlas | Toluca | Liga MX | 0-0 |
| 2025-04-13 | Atlas | Toluca | Liga MX | 2-3 |
| 2024-09-28 | Toluca | Atlas | Liga MX | 4-1 |
| 2024-04-07 | Toluca | Atlas | Liga MX | 4-1 |
| 2023-08-26 | Atlas | Toluca | Liga MX | 0-0 |
| 2023-02-02 | Atlas | Toluca | Liga MX | 0-0 |
| 2022-07-10 | Toluca | Atlas | Liga MX | 3-2 |
| 2022-04-24 | Toluca | Atlas | Liga MX | 2-4 |
| 2021-08-21 | Atlas | Toluca | Liga MX | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Toluca vs Atlas odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.2%, draw 21.0%, away 14.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.50 | 4.40 | 5.75 |
| 1xBet | 1.45 | 4.30 | 6.54 |
| 888Sport | 1.44 | 3.80 | 5.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.45 | 4.50 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.44 | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.65 | 7.10 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.50 | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.44 | 4.30 | 6.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.49 | 4.49 | 6.90 |
| SBO | 1.41 | 4.28 | 5.99 |
| Superbet | 1.50 | 4.45 | 5.85 |
| Unibet | 1.45 | 4.25 | 6.10 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 3.90 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.44 ▲ +0.02
X
4.49 ▼ -0.25
2
6.50 ▼ -0.61
14 snapshots recorded, from .