Toluca
vs
Monterrey
2 – 0 Full time
| 1′ | Andres Pereira | ||
| 4′ | Alexis Vega | ||
| 13′ | Orbelín Pineda | ||
| 38′ | Franco Romero | ||
| 61′ | Jesús AnguloJorge Diaz | ||
| 61′ | Brian Garcia Diego Barbosa | ||
| 68′ | Alexis VegaVíctor Guzmán | ||
| 68′ | Nicolás CastroLuan Garcia | ||
| 70′ | Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro | ||
| 74′ | Diego Barbosa | ||
| 75′ | Ricardo ChávezUros Djurdjevic | ||
| 75′ | Óliver TorresLucas Orellano | ||
| 78′ | Hélio Júnio Nunes de CastroJoão Paulo Dias Fernandes | ||
| 88′ | Jesús CoronaFidel Ambriz | ||
| 88′ | Orbelín PinedaIker Fimbres | ||
| 90′ | Hugo Cuypers |
Match stats
| 8 | Shots | 16 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 49 | Possession % | 51 |
| 2 | Corners | 15 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 2 | Saves | 3 |
| 260 | Accurate passes | 269 |
Toluca vs Monterrey overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Toluca vs Monterrey
| Probability | Toluca | Draw | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 73.2% | 17.6% | 9.2% |
| Market | 43.9% | 27.5% | 28.6% |
| Final | 51.2% | 25.0% | 23.7% |
| Edge | +29.3% | -9.9% | -19.4% |
Why Toluca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.45 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Toluca below the model: +29.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Toluca and Monterrey expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.22
Toluca and Monterrey attack and defence ratings
Toluca
Monterrey
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Toluca vs Monterrey: result vs prediction
Toluca 2 – 0 Monterrey
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Before and after this match
Toluca vs Monterrey markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toluca | 51.2% | 1.95 | +29.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.2% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Toluca win | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toluca | 51.2% |
| Draw | 25.0% | |
| Monterrey | 23.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.9% |
| No | 50.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Toluca win | 51.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 26.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.0% |
| 3-0 | 9.7% | |
| 2-1 | 9.3% |
Toluca vs Monterrey stats
Toluca and Monterrey recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Toluca and Monterrey going into this match
Toluca record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Monterrey record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Toluca vs Monterrey head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | Monterrey | Toluca | Liga MX | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-07 | Toluca | Monterrey | Liga MX | 3-2 |
| 2025-12-04 | Monterrey | Toluca | Liga MX | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-25 | Toluca | Monterrey | Liga MX | 6-2 |
| 2025-05-11 | Toluca | Monterrey | Liga MX | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-08 | Monterrey | Toluca | Liga MX | 3-2 |
| 2025-01-19 | Toluca | Monterrey | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-01 | Monterrey | Toluca | Liga MX | 1-2 |
| 2024-02-19 | Monterrey | Toluca | Liga MX | 0-0 |
| 2023-08-31 | Toluca | Monterrey | Liga MX | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Toluca vs Monterrey odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.9%, draw 27.5%, away 28.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.11 | 3.50 | 3.24 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 2.09 | 3.50 | 3.24 |
| Pinnacle | 2.19 | 3.37 | 3.42 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .