Toluca
vs
Leon
2 – 0 Full time
| -5′ | Irving Martinez | ||
| 39′ | Bruno Méndez | ||
| 39′ | Juan Guevara | ||
| 41′ | F. Pereira | ||
| 44′ | Nicolás Castro | ||
| 53′ | J. CortizoJ. P. Dominguez Chonteco | ||
| 53′ | S. VegasI. Moreno | ||
| 62′ | A. VegaJ. Diaz Price | ||
| 69′ | F. Vinas | ||
| 73′ | B. A. Garcia CaprizoD. Barbosa | ||
| 73′ | R. EcheverriaI. Diaz | ||
| 73′ | F. Beltran CruzA. Alvarado | ||
| 75′ | Bryan Colula | ||
| 75′ | Jhohan Romaña | ||
| 75′ | Jhohan Romaña | ||
| 75′ | Jhohan Romaña | ||
| 80′ | Daniel Arcila | ||
| 82′ | J. GuevaraP. Bellon | ||
| 84′ | J. GallardoF. Arce | ||
| 84′ | HelinhoJ. Angulo | ||
| 84′ | N. CastroP. Perez | ||
| 89′ | Bruno Méndez | ||
| 89′ | Bruno Méndez |
Match stats
| 21 | Shots | 11 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 56 | Possession % | 44 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 1 | Saves | 4 |
| 419 | Accurate passes | 303 |
Toluca vs Leon overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Toluca vs Leon
| Probability | Toluca | Draw | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.2% | 26.6% | 18.2% |
| Market | 50.7% | 26.5% | 22.8% |
| Final | 51.8% | 26.5% | 21.6% |
| Edge | +4.4% | +0.1% | -4.5% |
Why Toluca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.86.
- The market prices Toluca below the model: +4.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Toluca and Leon expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.52
Toluca and Leon attack and defence ratings
Toluca
Leon
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Toluca vs Leon: result vs prediction
Toluca 2 – 0 Leon
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Semi-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Toluca vs Leon markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toluca | 51.8% | 1.93 | +4.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.4% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.8% | 2.23 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toluca | 51.8% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Leon | 21.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.9% |
| No | 52.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Toluca win | 30.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 44.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 1-0 | 12.2% | |
| 2-0 | 11.1% |
Toluca vs Leon stats
Toluca and Leon recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Toluca and Leon going into this match
Toluca record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Leon record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Toluca vs Leon head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Toluca | Leon | Liga MX | 4-1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Leon | Toluca | Liga MX | 2-4 |
| 2025-02-09 | Leon | Toluca | Liga MX | 3-3 |
| 2024-11-02 | Toluca | Leon | Liga MX | 2-2 |
| 2024-02-03 | Toluca | Leon | Liga MX | 4-1 |
| 2023-10-21 | Leon | Toluca | Liga MX | 1-0 |
| 2023-01-29 | Toluca | Leon | Liga MX | 0-0 |
| 2022-07-27 | Leon | Toluca | Liga MX | 0-1 |
| 2022-05-02 | Leon | Toluca | Liga MX | 4-4 |
| 2021-10-31 | Toluca | Leon | Liga MX | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Toluca vs Leon odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.7%, draw 26.5%, away 22.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.81 | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| 1xBet | 1.86 | 3.52 | 4.08 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.40 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.91 | 3.65 | 4.35 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| Dafabet | 1.87 | 3.45 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.84 | 3.52 | 4.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.86 | 3.60 | 4.30 |
| SBO | 1.80 | 3.20 | 3.59 |
| Superbet | 1.90 | 3.55 | 4.15 |
| Unibet | 1.84 | 3.65 | 4.10 |
| William Hill | 1.83 | 3.30 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .