Puebla
vs
Toluca
0 – 1 Full time
| 45′ | Franco RomeroVíctor Guzmán | ||
| 57′ | Ignacio Maestro | ||
| 59′ | Everardo LopezHélio Júnio Nunes de Castro | ||
| 59′ | Jesús AnguloJorge Diaz | ||
| 69′ | José Pachuca | ||
| 72′ | Carlos BaltazarHeriberto Jurado | ||
| 75′ | Brayan GarnicaOmar Moreno | ||
| 77′ | Federico ViñasLuan Garcia | ||
| 90′ | Bruno Méndez | ||
| 90′ | Fernando MonarrezOscar Villa | ||
| 90′ | José PachucaIker Moreno | ||
| 90′ | Alejandro OrganistaAlberto Herrera | ||
| 90′ | João Paulo Dias FernandesOswaldo Virgen |
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 44 | Possession % | 56 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Offsides | 3 |
| 3 | Saves | 2 |
| 261 | Accurate passes | 382 |
Puebla vs Toluca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Puebla vs Toluca
| Probability | Puebla | Draw | Toluca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12.4% | 19.8% | 67.8% |
| Market | 16.8% | 21.5% | 61.7% |
| Final | 15.7% | 21.1% | 63.2% |
| Edge | -4.4% | -1.7% | +6.1% |
Why Toluca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Toluca below the model: +6.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Puebla and Toluca expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.19
Puebla and Toluca attack and defence ratings
Puebla
Toluca
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Puebla vs Toluca: result vs prediction
Puebla 0 – 1 Toluca
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Apertura - 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Puebla vs Toluca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toluca | 63.2% | 1.58 | +6.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 84.3% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Toluca win | 45.5% | 2.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Puebla | 15.7% |
| Draw | 21.1% | |
| Toluca | 63.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.1% |
| No | 45.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 36.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 84.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Toluca win | 45.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 32.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 10.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 1-1 | 9.3% |
Puebla vs Toluca stats
Puebla and Toluca recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Puebla and Toluca going into this match
Puebla record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Toluca record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Puebla vs Toluca head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Puebla | Toluca | Liga MX | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Toluca | Puebla | Liga MX | 3-1 |
| 2025-03-15 | Puebla | Toluca | Liga MX | 0-3 |
| 2024-10-23 | Toluca | Puebla | Liga MX | 5-0 |
| 2024-01-27 | Puebla | Toluca | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2023-11-01 | Toluca | Puebla | Liga MX | 0-1 |
| 2023-06-24 | Toluca | Puebla | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2023-04-08 | Puebla | Toluca | Liga MX | 1-2 |
| 2022-08-03 | Toluca | Puebla | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2022-04-03 | Toluca | Puebla | Liga MX | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Puebla vs Toluca odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 17.5%, draw 22.0%, away 60.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 4.65 | 4.10 | 1.64 |
| 1xBet | 5.42 | 4.30 | 1.51 |
| 888Sport | 4.20 | 3.75 | 1.62 |
| Bet365 | 5.75 | 4.33 | 1.53 |
| BetVictor | 5.50 | 4.20 | 1.50 |
| Betano | 5.70 | 4.60 | 1.57 |
| Betfair | 5.50 | 4.33 | 1.50 |
| Dafabet | 4.50 | 4.00 | 1.67 |
| Marathonbet | 5.35 | 4.30 | 1.50 |
| Pinnacle | 5.60 | 4.51 | 1.55 |
| SBO | 5.32 | 4.10 | 1.48 |
| Superbet | 4.60 | 4.25 | 1.64 |
| Unibet | 4.50 | 3.90 | 1.64 |
| William Hill | 4.80 | 3.90 | 1.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
32 snapshots recorded, from .