Liga MX
·
Full time
·Apertura - 9
Toluca
vs
Santos Laguna
2 – 3 Full time
| 25′ | Federico Viñas | ||
| 38′ | Nicolás Castro | ||
| 43′ | João Paulo Dias Fernandes | ||
| 45′ | Ezequiel Bullaude | ||
| 45′ | Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich | ||
| 45′ | Everardo Lopez | ||
| 45′ | Facundo Cáseres | ||
| 45′ | Emmanuel EcheverriaDiego González | ||
| 45′ | Salvador MariscalFrancisco Villalba | ||
| 66′ | Alexis VegaJorge Diaz | ||
| 66′ | Federico ViñasJesús Angulo | ||
| 69′ | L. GómezKevin Palacios | ||
| 69′ | Ezequiel BullaudeEduardo Aguirre | ||
| 75′ | Facundo CáseresJavier Guemez | ||
| 81′ | João Paulo Dias FernandesLuan Garcia | ||
| 86′ | Kevin Palacios | ||
| 90′ | Nicolás CastroBrian Garcia | ||
| 90′ | Francisco Villalba |
Toluca
75%
Draw
16%
Santos Laguna
9%
Match stats
| 24 | Shots | 22 |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 46 | Possession % | 54 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Offsides | 2 |
| 3 | Saves | 7 |
| 361 | Accurate passes | 435 |
Toluca vs Santos Laguna overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Toluca vs Santos Laguna
| Probability | Toluca | Draw | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 78.9% | 15.9% | 5.2% |
| Market | 74.3% | 15.5% | 10.2% |
| Final | 75.4% | 15.6% | 9.0% |
| Edge | +4.6% | +0.4% | -5.0% |
Why Toluca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.36 vs 0.48.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Toluca below the model: +4.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
78%
3+ goals
54%
No goals
6%
Toluca and Santos Laguna expected goals
Toluca
2.36
Santos Laguna
0.48
Total expected goals: 2.85
Toluca and Santos Laguna attack and defence ratings
Toluca
Attack
1.40 +40%
Defence
0.54 -46%
Santos Laguna
Attack
0.73 -27%
Defence
1.02 +2%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Toluca vs Santos Laguna: result vs prediction
Toluca 2 – 3 Santos Laguna
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Apertura - 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Toluca vs Santos Laguna markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toluca | 75.4% | 1.33 | +4.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.2% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.0% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Toluca win | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toluca | 75.4% |
| Draw | 15.6% | |
| Santos Laguna | 9.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.4% |
| No | 64.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 24.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Toluca win | 56.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 21.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 16.2% |
| 1-0 | 13.0% | |
| 3-0 | 12.8% |
Toluca vs Santos Laguna stats
Toluca and Santos Laguna recent form
| Toluca |
WWWWWW |
| Santos Laguna |
WLDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Toluca and Santos Laguna going into this match
Toluca record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Santos Laguna record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Toluca vs Santos Laguna head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
8Toluca wins
0Draws
2Santos Laguna wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-15 | Toluca | Santos Laguna | Liga MX | 3-1 |
| 2025-07-17 | Santos Laguna | Toluca | Liga MX | 2-4 |
| 2025-04-07 | Toluca | Santos Laguna | Liga MX | 2-1 |
| 2024-09-23 | Santos Laguna | Toluca | Liga MX | 2-0 |
| 2024-02-22 | Toluca | Santos Laguna | Liga MX | 1-0 |
| 2023-11-06 | Santos Laguna | Toluca | Liga MX | 3-1 |
| 2023-02-24 | Santos Laguna | Toluca | Liga MX | 0-5 |
| 2022-10-17 | Santos Laguna | Toluca | Liga MX | 1-2 |
| 2022-10-14 | Toluca | Santos Laguna | Liga MX | 4-3 |
| 2022-07-23 | Toluca | Santos Laguna | Liga MX | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Toluca vs Santos Laguna odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 74.3%, draw 15.5%, away 10.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.25 | 5.90 | 9.10 |
| Bet365 | 1.28 | 6.25 | 8.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.25 | 6.00 | 9.50 |
| Betano | 1.30 | 6.60 | 9.50 |
| Betfair | 1.22 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.24 | 5.90 | 9.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.28 | 6.58 | 9.12 |
| SBO | 1.25 | 5.42 | 7.34 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.50 | 7.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.25 ▲ +0.03
X
6.00 —
2
9.10 ▼ -1.40
12 snapshots recorded, from .