Monterrey
vs
Cruz Azul
1 – 0 Full time
| 7′ | César Garza | ||
| 45′ | Jesús OrozcoAlan Mozo | ||
| 58′ | César Garza | ||
| 58′ | Gabriel Fernández | ||
| 60′ | Gonzalo Piovi | ||
| 61′ | Daniel AcevesStefan Medina | ||
| 62′ | José ParadelaOsinachi Ebere | ||
| 62′ | Agustín PalavecinoLuka Romero | ||
| 76′ | Jesús CoronaFidel Ambriz | ||
| 76′ | Lucas OrellanoJorge Rodríguez | ||
| 79′ | Ángel MárquezNicolás Ibañez | ||
| 79′ | Gabriel FernándezAriel Castro | ||
| 88′ | César GarzaIker Fimbres | ||
| 88′ | Óliver TorresLuis Reyes |
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 47 | Possession % | 53 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Offsides | 3 |
| 4 | Saves | 4 |
| 315 | Accurate passes | 379 |
Monterrey vs Cruz Azul overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Monterrey vs Cruz Azul
| Probability | Monterrey | Draw | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.0% | 25.5% | 33.5% |
| Market | 41.9% | 26.0% | 32.1% |
| Final | 41.7% | 25.9% | 32.4% |
| Edge | -0.9% | -0.5% | +1.4% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Monterrey and Cruz Azul expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.17
Monterrey and Cruz Azul attack and defence ratings
Monterrey
Cruz Azul
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Monterrey vs Cruz Azul: result vs prediction
Monterrey 1 – 0 Cruz Azul
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Apertura - 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Monterrey vs Cruz Azul markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monterrey | 41.7% | 2.40 | -0.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.0% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monterrey | 41.7% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Cruz Azul | 32.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.2% |
| No | 35.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Monterrey win | 21.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 59.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-2 | 7.9% |
Monterrey vs Cruz Azul stats
Monterrey and Cruz Azul recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Monterrey and Cruz Azul going into this match
Monterrey record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cruz Azul record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Monterrey vs Cruz Azul head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Cruz Azul | Monterrey | CONCACAF Champions League | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-11 | Monterrey | Cruz Azul | CONCACAF Champions League | 2-3 |
| 2026-03-01 | Monterrey | Cruz Azul | Liga MX | 0-2 |
| 2025-10-26 | Cruz Azul | Monterrey | Liga MX | 2-0 |
| 2025-03-09 | Cruz Azul | Monterrey | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2024-07-14 | Monterrey | Cruz Azul | Liga MX | 0-4 |
| 2024-05-20 | Cruz Azul | Monterrey | Liga MX | 1-2 |
| 2024-05-17 | Monterrey | Cruz Azul | Liga MX | 0-1 |
| 2024-04-07 | Cruz Azul | Monterrey | Liga MX | 2-1 |
| 2023-08-28 | Monterrey | Cruz Azul | Liga MX | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Monterrey vs Cruz Azul odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.4%, draw 26.1%, away 32.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.22 | 3.56 | 2.87 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.70 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.35 | 3.50 | 2.85 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| Marathonbet | 2.20 | 3.56 | 2.85 |
| Pinnacle | 2.25 | 3.86 | 2.97 |
| SBO | 2.24 | 3.41 | 2.70 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .