Liga MX
·
Full time
·Apertura - 10
Cruz Azul
vs
Toluca
3 – 3 Full time
| 7′ | Nicolás Ibañez | ||
| 37′ | Diego Barbosa | ||
| 38′ | Gabriel Fernández | ||
| 45′ | Agustín Palavecino | ||
| 45′ | Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich | ||
| 45′ | Diego BarbosaÉrick Gutiérrez | ||
| 52′ | Willer Ditta | ||
| 55′ | Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro | ||
| 56′ | Alexis Vega | ||
| 57′ | Gonzalo Piovi | ||
| 73′ | Pavel PérezJesús Angulo | ||
| 76′ | Nicolás IbañezAndrés Montaño | ||
| 76′ | Agustín PalavecinoLuka Romero | ||
| 78′ | Alexis Vega | ||
| 82′ | Alexis VegaJorge Diaz | ||
| 88′ | Gonzalo PioviRogelio Gonzalez | ||
| 88′ | Alan MozoOsinachi Ebere | ||
| 90′ | Hélio Júnio Nunes de CastroSebastián Aceves | ||
| 90′ | Gabriel Fernández | ||
| 90′ | José ParadelaJuan José Calero Sierra | ||
| 90′ | Andrés Montaño |
Cruz Azul
34%
Draw
27%
Toluca
39%
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 18 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 49 | Possession % | 51 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Offsides | 3 |
| 4 | Saves | 4 |
| 251 | Accurate passes | 282 |
Cruz Azul vs Toluca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cruz Azul vs Toluca
| Probability | Cruz Azul | Draw | Toluca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.2% | 26.2% | 47.6% |
| Market | 36.0% | 27.3% | 36.7% |
| Final | 33.5% | 27.1% | 39.4% |
| Edge | -9.8% | -1.1% | +10.9% |
Why Toluca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 1.21.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Toluca below the model: +10.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
80%
3+ goals
55%
No goals
7%
Cruz Azul and Toluca expected goals
Cruz Azul
1.21
Toluca
1.69
Total expected goals: 2.90
Cruz Azul and Toluca attack and defence ratings
Cruz Azul
Attack
1.07 +7%
Defence
0.97 -3%
Toluca
Attack
1.41 +41%
Defence
0.68 -32%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Cruz Azul vs Toluca: result vs prediction
Cruz Azul 3 – 3 Toluca
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Apertura - 10 fixtures
- Atlante FC v Monterrey — match page
- Club Tijuana vs Atlas — team news & stats
- Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Queretaro
- Santos Laguna vs CF Pachuca — team news & stats
- Tigres UANL v Puebla — match page
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Atletico San Luis — match page
- Leon vs FC Juarez — team news & stats
- Necaxa vs Club America
Before and after this match
Cruz Azul vs Toluca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toluca | 39.4% | 2.54 | +10.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cruz Azul | 33.5% |
| Draw | 27.1% | |
| Toluca | 39.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.4% |
| No | 41.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Toluca win | 26.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 52.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 1-2 | 9.5% | |
| 0-1 | 8.2% |
Cruz Azul vs Toluca stats
Cruz Azul and Toluca recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cruz Azul and Toluca going into this match
Cruz Azul record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Toluca record
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Cruz Azul vs Toluca head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Cruz Azul wins
4Draws
3Toluca wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Toluca | Cruz Azul | Campeón de Campeones | 1-3 |
| 2026-02-07 | Toluca | Cruz Azul | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-24 | Cruz Azul | Toluca | Liga MX | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-20 | Toluca | Cruz Azul | Liga MX | 2-2 |
| 2024-07-21 | Cruz Azul | Toluca | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2024-04-28 | Toluca | Cruz Azul | Liga MX | 0-1 |
| 2023-07-08 | Cruz Azul | Toluca | Liga MX | 0-2 |
| 2023-02-12 | Toluca | Cruz Azul | Liga MX | 3-1 |
| 2022-12-23 | Toluca | Cruz Azul | Copa por México | 1-1 |
| 2022-08-14 | Cruz Azul | Toluca | Liga MX | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cruz Azul vs Toluca odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.0%, draw 27.3%, away 36.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.60 | 3.24 | 2.55 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.70 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.60 | 3.45 | 2.60 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.60 | 3.24 | 2.55 |
| Pinnacle | 2.72 | 3.42 | 2.67 |
| SBO | 2.41 | 3.32 | 2.41 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.60 ▼ -0.04
X
3.42 ▲ +0.17
2
2.55 ▼ -0.01
12 snapshots recorded, from .