Tigres UANL
vs
Toluca
Garuda Lions Prediction: Toluca
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Tigres UANL vs Toluca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tigres UANL vs Toluca
| Probability | Tigres UANL | Draw | Toluca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.6% | 30.1% | 45.3% |
| Market | 32.8% | 26.6% | 40.5% |
| Final | 30.8% | 27.5% | 41.7% |
| Edge | -8.3% | +3.5% | +4.8% |
Why Toluca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.94.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Toluca below the model: +4.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Tigres UANL vs Toluca match preview
Tigres UANL faces Toluca in a Liga MX matchup with Tigres holding a 31% probability of winning, while Toluca is favored at 42%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1 in favor of Toluca, with an expected goals tally of 0.94 for Tigres and 1.36 for Toluca. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 40%, and both teams scoring sits at 47%.
In terms of recent form, Tigres UANL has recorded one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches, while Toluca has been in strong form with four consecutive wins and one draw. Historically, in their last 10 encounters, Tigres has achieved three wins, Toluca four, and there have been three draws. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tigres UANL and Toluca expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.30
Tigres UANL and Toluca attack and defence ratings
Tigres UANL
Toluca
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 11 fixtures
- Puebla vs Leon — team news & stats
- Club Queretaro v Atlante FC — match page
- FC Juarez v Club Tijuana — match page
- Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas — team news & stats
- Club America vs Monterrey
- Atletico San Luis vs Santos Laguna — team news & stats
- CF Pachuca v Necaxa — match page
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul
Before and after this match
Tigres UANL vs Toluca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toluca | 41.7% | 2.40 | +4.8% | 2.37 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tigres UANL | 30.8% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Toluca | 41.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.6% |
| No | 53.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Toluca win | 22.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 54.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 0-1 | 12.4% | |
| 0-0 | 11.3% |
Tigres UANL vs Toluca stats
Tigres UANL and Toluca recent form
| Tigres UANL |
WLDDDW |
| Toluca |
DLWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tigres UANL and Toluca season so far
Tigres UANL record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Toluca record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Tigres UANL vs Toluca head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Toluca | Tigres UANL | CONCACAF Champions League | 1-1 |
| 2026-01-18 | Tigres UANL | Toluca | Liga MX | 0-0 |
| 2025-12-15 | Toluca | Tigres UANL | Liga MX | 2-1 |
| 2025-12-12 | Tigres UANL | Toluca | Liga MX | 1-0 |
| 2025-07-27 | Toluca | Tigres UANL | Liga MX | 3-4 |
| 2025-05-18 | Toluca | Tigres UANL | Liga MX | 3-0 |
| 2025-05-15 | Tigres UANL | Toluca | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-02 | Toluca | Tigres UANL | Liga MX | 1-0 |
| 2024-11-07 | Tigres UANL | Toluca | Liga MX | 2-1 |
| 2024-03-02 | Toluca | Tigres UANL | Liga MX | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tigres UANL vs Toluca odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.8%, draw 26.6%, away 40.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.85 | 3.44 | 2.28 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.70 | 2.35 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.32 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.85 | 3.60 | 2.36 |
| Marathonbet | 2.83 | 3.44 | 2.26 |
| Pinnacle | 2.96 | 3.59 | 2.37 |
| SBO | 2.59 | 3.13 | 2.34 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 3.10 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .