Liga MX
·
Full time
·Apertura - 11
Tigres UANL
vs
Toluca
3 – 2 Full time
| 6′ | Juan Brunetta | ||
| 33′ | Alexis Vega | ||
| 37′ | Guillermo Martinez | ||
| 42′ | João Paulo Dias Fernandes | ||
| 43′ | Brian Garcia | ||
| 45′ | Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich | ||
| 45′ | Érick GutiérrezFederico Viñas | ||
| 54′ | Federico Viñas | ||
| 60′ | Juan Brunetta | ||
| 69′ | Emiliano GómezDiego Sánchez | ||
| 69′ | Alan FrancoVladimir Loroña | ||
| 70′ | Alexis VegaJesús Angulo | ||
| 71′ | Brian Garcia Santiago Simon | ||
| 71′ | Hélio Júnio Nunes de CastroJorge Diaz | ||
| 77′ | Guillermo MartinezRodrigo Aguirre | ||
| 77′ | Diego LainezJonathan Herrera | ||
| 89′ | Juan BrunettaJesús Garza | ||
| 90′ | Nicolás CastroPavel Pérez | ||
| 90′ | Vladimir Loroña | ||
| 90′ | Franco Romero | ||
| 90′ | Andres Pereira |
Tigres UANL
31%
Draw
28%
Toluca
42%
Match stats
| 20 | Shots | 17 |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 30 | Possession % | 70 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 6 | Saves | 10 |
| 153 | Accurate passes | 447 |
Tigres UANL vs Toluca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tigres UANL vs Toluca
| Probability | Tigres UANL | Draw | Toluca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.6% | 30.1% | 45.3% |
| Market | 32.8% | 26.6% | 40.5% |
| Final | 30.8% | 27.5% | 41.7% |
| Edge | -2.1% | +0.9% | +1.2% |
Why Toluca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.94.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
89%
2+ goals
68%
3+ goals
40%
No goals
11%
Tigres UANL and Toluca expected goals
Tigres UANL
0.94
Toluca
1.36
Total expected goals: 2.30
Tigres UANL and Toluca attack and defence ratings
Tigres UANL
Attack
0.68 -32%
Defence
0.75 -25%
Toluca
Attack
1.46 +46%
Defence
0.83 -17%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Tigres UANL vs Toluca: result vs prediction
Tigres UANL 3 – 2 Toluca
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Apertura - 11 fixtures
- Puebla vs Leon — team news & stats
- Club Queretaro v Atlante FC — match page
- FC Juarez v Club Tijuana — match page
- Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas — team news & stats
- Club America vs Monterrey
- Atletico San Luis vs Santos Laguna — team news & stats
- CF Pachuca v Necaxa — match page
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul
Before and after this match
Tigres UANL vs Toluca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toluca | 41.7% | 2.40 | +1.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tigres UANL | 30.8% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Toluca | 41.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.6% |
| No | 53.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Toluca win | 22.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 54.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 0-1 | 12.4% | |
| 0-0 | 11.3% |
Tigres UANL vs Toluca stats
Tigres UANL and Toluca recent form
| Tigres UANL |
WLDDDW |
| Toluca |
DLWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tigres UANL and Toluca going into this match
Tigres UANL record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Toluca record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Tigres UANL vs Toluca head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Tigres UANL wins
3Draws
4Toluca wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Toluca | Tigres UANL | CONCACAF Champions League | 1-1 |
| 2026-01-18 | Tigres UANL | Toluca | Liga MX | 0-0 |
| 2025-12-15 | Toluca | Tigres UANL | Liga MX | 2-1 |
| 2025-12-12 | Tigres UANL | Toluca | Liga MX | 1-0 |
| 2025-07-27 | Toluca | Tigres UANL | Liga MX | 3-4 |
| 2025-05-18 | Toluca | Tigres UANL | Liga MX | 3-0 |
| 2025-05-15 | Tigres UANL | Toluca | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-02 | Toluca | Tigres UANL | Liga MX | 1-0 |
| 2024-11-07 | Tigres UANL | Toluca | Liga MX | 2-1 |
| 2024-03-02 | Toluca | Tigres UANL | Liga MX | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tigres UANL vs Toluca odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.8%, draw 26.6%, away 40.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.85 | 3.44 | 2.28 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.70 | 2.35 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.32 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.85 | 3.60 | 2.36 |
| Marathonbet | 2.83 | 3.44 | 2.26 |
| Pinnacle | 2.96 | 3.59 | 2.37 |
| SBO | 2.59 | 3.13 | 2.34 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 3.10 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.84 ▲ +0.13
X
3.50 —
2
2.30 ▼ -0.08
14 snapshots recorded, from .