Club America
vs
Monterrey
Garuda Lions Prediction: Club America
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Club America vs Monterrey overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Club America vs Monterrey
| Probability | Club America | Draw | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.2% | 19.1% | 15.8% |
| Market | 49.9% | 26.6% | 23.6% |
| Final | 53.7% | 24.7% | 21.6% |
| Edge | +15.3% | -7.5% | -7.8% |
Why Club America
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.52 vs 1.21.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Club America below the model: +15.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.92, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Club America vs Monterrey match preview
Club America enters this matchup with a 55% probability of winning, while Monterrey sits at 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Club America, with an expected goals tally of 2.52 for Club America and 1.21 for Monterrey. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is 72%, and both teams scoring is projected at 65%.
In terms of recent form, Club America has recorded a W-D-L-L-D-W sequence, whereas Monterrey's recent performances show L-W-D-L-D-L. Historically, in their last 10 encounters, Club America has secured 4 wins, with Monterrey achieving 2 victories and 4 matches ending in draws. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the forecasted outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Club America and Monterrey expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.72
Club America and Monterrey attack and defence ratings
Club America
Monterrey
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 11 fixtures
- Puebla vs Leon — team news & stats
- Tigres UANL vs Toluca
- Club Queretaro v Atlante FC — match page
- FC Juarez v Club Tijuana — match page
- Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas — team news & stats
- Atletico San Luis vs Santos Laguna — team news & stats
- CF Pachuca v Necaxa — match page
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul
Before and after this match
Club America vs Monterrey markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club America | 53.7% | 1.86 | +15.3% | 1.92 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.1% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.4% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Club America win | 44.5% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club America | 53.7% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Monterrey | 21.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.1% |
| No | 34.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Club America win | 44.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 34.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.2% |
| 1-1 | 8.1% | |
| 3-1 | 7.7% |
Club America vs Monterrey stats
Club America and Monterrey recent form
| Club America |
WDLLDW |
| Monterrey |
LWDLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Club America and Monterrey season so far
Club America record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Monterrey record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Club America vs Monterrey head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Club America | Monterrey | Leagues Cup | 2-2 |
| 2026-02-08 | Club America | Monterrey | Liga MX | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Club America | Monterrey | Liga MX | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-27 | Monterrey | Club America | Liga MX | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-21 | Monterrey | Club America | Liga MX | 2-2 |
| 2025-04-17 | Monterrey | Club America | Liga MX | 1-0 |
| 2024-12-16 | Monterrey | Club America | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2024-12-13 | Club America | Monterrey | Liga MX | 2-1 |
| 2024-10-28 | Club America | Monterrey | Liga MX | 2-1 |
| 2024-02-04 | Club America | Monterrey | Liga MX | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Club America vs Monterrey odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.9%, draw 26.6%, away 23.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.85 | 3.46 | 3.99 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.85 | 3.75 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 1.90 | 3.45 | 4.15 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.91 | 3.65 | 3.95 |
| Marathonbet | 1.83 | 3.46 | 3.98 |
| Pinnacle | 1.92 | 3.54 | 4.03 |
| SBO | 1.84 | 3.28 | 3.32 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .