Leon
vs
Club America
Garuda Lions Prediction: Club America
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Leon vs Club America overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Leon vs Club America
| Probability | Leon | Draw | Club America |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.0% | 27.2% | 28.8% |
| Market | 29.5% | 26.3% | 44.2% |
| Final | 33.2% | 26.5% | 40.3% |
| Edge | +14.5% | +0.9% | -15.4% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Leon vs Club America match preview
Leon faces Club America in a Liga MX matchup with both teams showing mixed recent form. Leon's last six matches include three wins and two draws, while Club America has two wins and three draws in their last six. According to our model, the probabilities suggest a slight edge for Club America at 39%, compared to Leon's 34% and a 27% chance of a draw. The expected goals indicate Leon at 1.58 and Club America at 1.23, highlighting a competitive encounter.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 7%. Additionally, there is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% probability that both teams will score. Historically, in their last 10 encounters, Leon has secured 1 victory, while Club America has won 4 times, with 5 matches ending in draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Leon and Club America expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.81
Leon and Club America attack and defence ratings
Leon
Club America
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Leon vs Club America markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club America | 40.3% | 2.48 | -15.4% | 2.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.2% | 1.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leon | 33.2% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Club America | 40.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% |
| No | 42.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Club America win | 12.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.3% | |
| Loss | 71.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 1-0 | 8.3% |
Leon vs Club America stats
Leon and Club America recent form
| Leon |
DWDWLW |
| Club America |
DWDLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Leon and Club America season so far
Leon record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Club America record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Leon vs Club America head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Leon | Club America | Leagues Cup | 1-0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Leon | Club America | Liga MX | 2-3 |
| 2025-11-02 | Club America | Leon | Liga MX | 2-0 |
| 2025-02-20 | Club America | Leon | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2024-10-06 | Leon | Club America | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2024-02-11 | Leon | Club America | Liga MX | 0-1 |
| 2023-12-03 | Club America | Leon | Liga MX | 2-0 |
| 2023-11-30 | Leon | Club America | Liga MX | 2-2 |
| 2023-08-27 | Club America | Leon | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2023-04-02 | Club America | Leon | Liga MX | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Leon vs Club America odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.6%, draw 26.4%, away 44.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.14 | 3.54 | 2.09 |
| Bet365 | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.15 |
| BetVictor | 3.13 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.15 | 3.45 | 2.20 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.75 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.25 | 3.55 | 2.17 |
| Marathonbet | 3.12 | 3.54 | 2.07 |
| Pinnacle | 3.45 | 3.60 | 2.12 |
| SBO | 2.76 | 3.06 | 2.16 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .