Toluca
vs
Atletico San Luis
Garuda Lions Prediction: Toluca
3 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Toluca vs Atletico San Luis overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Toluca vs Atletico San Luis
| Probability | Toluca | Draw | Atletico San Luis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75.1% | 14.3% | 10.6% |
| Market | 70.6% | 17.5% | 11.9% |
| Final | 71.7% | 16.7% | 11.6% |
| Edge | +4.5% | -3.2% | -1.4% |
Why Toluca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.13 vs 1.19.
- The market prices Toluca below the model: +4.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.37, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Toluca vs Atletico San Luis match preview
Toluca is set to face Atletico San Luis in their upcoming Liga MX match, with a strong probability of winning at 74%. The model predicts a likely scoreline of 3-1 in favor of Toluca, which aligns with an expectation of over 2.5 goals in the match at 80%. Both teams are also projected to score, with a probability of 68%.
In terms of recent form, Toluca has experienced a mixed run with two wins and a draw in their last five matches, while Atletico San Luis has recorded three wins and two losses in their recent outings. Historically, in their last two encounters, Toluca has secured one win and one draw against Atletico San Luis, who has yet to claim a victory in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Toluca and Atletico San Luis expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.32
Toluca and Atletico San Luis attack and defence ratings
Toluca
Atletico San Luis
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Toluca vs Atletico San Luis markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toluca | 71.7% | 1.39 | +4.5% | 1.37 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.5% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.0% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.4% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Toluca win | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toluca | 71.7% |
| Draw | 16.7% | |
| Atletico San Luis | 11.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 19.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.0% |
| No | 33.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 28.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Toluca win | 57.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.1% | |
| Loss | 24.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 8.1% |
| 2-1 | 7.8% | |
| 3-0 | 6.8% |
Toluca vs Atletico San Luis stats
Toluca and Atletico San Luis recent form
| Toluca |
LDLWWW |
| Atletico San Luis |
LWWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Toluca and Atletico San Luis season so far
Toluca record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Atletico San Luis record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
Toluca vs Atletico San Luis head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | Toluca | Atletico San Luis | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-30 | Atletico San Luis | Toluca | Liga MX | 1-3 |
| 2025-04-17 | Atletico San Luis | Toluca | Liga MX | 0-1 |
| 2024-08-25 | Toluca | Atletico San Luis | Liga MX | 2-1 |
| 2024-04-20 | Atletico San Luis | Toluca | Liga MX | 1-5 |
| 2023-10-29 | Toluca | Atletico San Luis | Liga MX | 3-1 |
| 2023-02-26 | Toluca | Atletico San Luis | Liga MX | 2-0 |
| 2022-08-21 | Atletico San Luis | Toluca | Liga MX | 1-0 |
| 2022-02-12 | Atletico San Luis | Toluca | Liga MX | 0-1 |
| 2021-09-26 | Toluca | Atletico San Luis | Liga MX | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Toluca vs Atletico San Luis odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 70.3%, draw 17.4%, away 12.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.32 | 5.30 | 7.55 |
| Bet365 | 1.36 | 5.50 | 8.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.30 | 5.25 | 8.00 |
| Betano | 1.37 | 5.20 | 7.30 |
| Betfair | 1.30 | 5.50 | 8.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.36 | 5.60 | 7.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.31 | 5.30 | 7.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.32 | 5.84 | 8.43 |
| SBO | 1.31 | 4.76 | 5.90 |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 4.80 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .