Monterrey
vs
CF Pachuca
Garuda Lions Prediction: Monterrey
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Monterrey vs CF Pachuca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Monterrey vs CF Pachuca
| Probability | Monterrey | Draw | CF Pachuca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.2% | 27.0% | 32.9% |
| Market | 55.5% | 23.5% | 21.0% |
| Final | 51.7% | 24.4% | 24.0% |
| Edge | -15.3% | +3.5% | +11.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Monterrey vs CF Pachuca match preview
Monterrey faces CF Pachuca in an intriguing Liga MX matchup. According to our model, Monterrey has a 40% chance of winning, while Pachuca stands at 33%, and a draw is estimated at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Monterrey, occurring with a 9% probability. Both teams are expected to score, with a 60% likelihood, and there is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match. Expected goals are calculated at 1.54 for Monterrey and 1.36 for CF Pachuca.
In terms of recent form, Monterrey has recorded a series of results with a D-L-W-D-L-D pattern, while CF Pachuca has a slightly better run with D-L-D-W-W-D. Historically, the last two encounters have seen CF Pachuca winning both matches against Monterrey, which may influence the dynamics of this fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Monterrey and CF Pachuca expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.90
Monterrey and CF Pachuca attack and defence ratings
Monterrey
CF Pachuca
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Monterrey vs CF Pachuca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monterrey | 51.7% | 1.93 | -15.3% | 1.72 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.7% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monterrey | 51.7% |
| Draw | 24.4% | |
| CF Pachuca | 24.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.7% |
| No | 40.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Monterrey win | 20.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 59.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-2 | 7.9% |
Monterrey vs CF Pachuca stats
Monterrey and CF Pachuca recent form
| Monterrey |
DLWDLD |
| CF Pachuca |
DLDWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Monterrey and CF Pachuca season so far
Monterrey record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CF Pachuca record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Monterrey vs CF Pachuca head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Monterrey | CF Pachuca | Liga MX | 1-3 |
| 2025-07-13 | CF Pachuca | Monterrey | Liga MX | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Monterrey vs CF Pachuca odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.6%, draw 23.4%, away 20.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.68 | 3.95 | 4.32 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 4.10 | 4.50 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| Dafabet | 1.72 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.66 | 3.95 | 4.33 |
| Pinnacle | 1.66 | 4.38 | 4.45 |
| SBO | 1.66 | 3.46 | 3.91 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .