Necaxa
vs
Atlas
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atlas
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Necaxa vs Atlas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Necaxa vs Atlas
| Probability | Necaxa | Draw | Atlas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.2% | 24.6% | 40.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 35.2% | 24.6% | 40.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Atlas
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Necaxa vs Atlas match preview
In the upcoming Liga MX clash, Necaxa faces Atlas, with our model assigning a 35% probability of a Necaxa victory, a 25% chance for a draw, and a 40% likelihood of an Atlas win. The expected goals for Necaxa stand at 1.63, while Atlas is projected at 1.75. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring with an 8% probability.
Recent form indicates that Necaxa is struggling, with three losses and two draws in their last five matches. In contrast, Atlas has shown some resilience, securing one win, two draws, and two losses in the same timeframe. Both teams are expected to score, with a 67% probability, and there is a 66% chance that the match will see over 2.5 goals. Historically, Atlas has dominated their recent encounters, winning both of the last two meetings.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Necaxa and Atlas expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.39
Necaxa and Atlas attack and defence ratings
Necaxa
Atlas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Necaxa vs Atlas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlas | 40.2% | 2.49 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.7% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.5% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Necaxa | 35.2% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| Atlas | 40.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.5% |
| No | 32.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atlas win | 21.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.6% | |
| Loss | 59.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.7% |
| 1-2 | 8.5% | |
| 2-1 | 7.9% |
Necaxa vs Atlas stats
Necaxa and Atlas recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Necaxa and Atlas season so far
Necaxa record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlas record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Necaxa vs Atlas head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Necaxa | Atlas | Liga MX | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Atlas | Necaxa | Liga MX | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.