Necaxa
vs
Atlas
0 – 2 Full time
| 5′ | Ryan Mmaee | ||
| 64′ | Matias EspindolaJavier Ruiz | ||
| 67′ | Milton Valenzuela | ||
| 70′ | Ryan MmaeeJorge Rodríguez | ||
| 74′ | Pedro PedrazaJuan Valencia | ||
| 74′ | Emilio MartínezLeonardo Abimael Becerra Ramos | ||
| 76′ | Luís André Leite EstevesEdgar Zaldívar | ||
| 76′ | Kevin ZenonManuel Capasso | ||
| 77′ | Adonis Frías | ||
| 81′ | Carlos VargasMiguel Pedroza | ||
| 82′ | Owen GonzálezRogelio Cortéz | ||
| 85′ | Jorge SánchezGaddi Aguirre | ||
| 90′ | Manuel Capasso | ||
| 90′ | Diego Ochoa |
Match stats
| 20 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 49 | Possession % | 51 |
| 10 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 2 | Saves | 3 |
| 321 | Accurate passes | 342 |
Necaxa vs Atlas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Necaxa vs Atlas
| Probability | Necaxa | Draw | Atlas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.2% | 23.8% | 38.0% |
| Market | 37.7% | 26.8% | 35.5% |
| Final | 37.8% | 26.0% | 36.2% |
| Edge | +0.1% | -0.7% | +0.6% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Necaxa and Atlas expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.59
Necaxa and Atlas attack and defence ratings
Necaxa
Atlas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Necaxa vs Atlas: result vs prediction
Necaxa 0 – 2 Atlas
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Necaxa vs Atlas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Necaxa | 37.8% | 2.64 | +0.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.5% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Necaxa | 37.8% |
| Draw | 26.0% | |
| Atlas | 36.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.4% |
| No | 29.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Necaxa win | 20.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.7% | |
| Loss | 61.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.8% |
| 2-1 | 8.0% | |
| 1-2 | 8.0% |
Necaxa vs Atlas stats
Necaxa and Atlas recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Necaxa and Atlas going into this match
Necaxa record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlas record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Necaxa vs Atlas head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Atlas | Necaxa | Friendlies Clubs | 0-0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Necaxa | Atlas | Liga MX | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-30 | Atlas | Necaxa | Friendlies Clubs | 5-3 |
| 2025-09-27 | Atlas | Necaxa | Liga MX | 3-2 |
| 2025-02-19 | Atlas | Necaxa | Liga MX | 0-4 |
| 2024-12-23 | Atlas | Necaxa | Friendlies Clubs | 1-2 |
| 2024-11-10 | Necaxa | Atlas | Liga MX | 0-0 |
| 2024-01-15 | Necaxa | Atlas | Liga MX | 2-1 |
| 2023-11-11 | Atlas | Necaxa | Liga MX | 0-0 |
| 2023-04-22 | Necaxa | Atlas | Liga MX | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Necaxa vs Atlas odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.6%, draw 26.8%, away 35.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.43 | 3.48 | 2.58 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.40 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.55 | 3.45 | 2.67 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.60 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.43 | 3.48 | 2.58 |
| Pinnacle | 2.58 | 3.57 | 2.69 |
| SBO | 2.50 | 3.22 | 2.51 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .