Guadalajara Chivas
vs
Necaxa
Garuda Lions Prediction: Guadalajara Chivas
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa
| Probability | Guadalajara Chivas | Draw | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71.6% | 17.9% | 10.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 71.6% | 17.9% | 10.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Guadalajara Chivas
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 0.87.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa match preview
Guadalajara Chivas are favored in their upcoming match against Necaxa, with a 71% probability of winning according to our model. The expected goals for Chivas stand at 2.54, while Necaxa is projected to score just 0.95. Recent form shows Chivas with a mixed record of D-L-D-W-W-D, while Necaxa has struggled, recording D-L-L-L-D-L in their last six matches.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring with a 10% probability. Additionally, there is a 68% chance that the match will see over 2.5 goals, and a 57% likelihood that both teams will score. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Chivas have secured one win and one draw against Necaxa, who have yet to win in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Guadalajara Chivas and Necaxa expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.33
Guadalajara Chivas and Necaxa attack and defence ratings
Guadalajara Chivas
Necaxa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.7% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.5% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Guadalajara Chivas win | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 71.6% |
| Draw | 17.9% | |
| Necaxa | 10.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.9% |
| No | 46.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 28.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Guadalajara Chivas win | 50.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 28.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 3-0 | 8.9% |
Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa stats
Guadalajara Chivas and Necaxa recent form
| Guadalajara Chivas |
DLDWWD |
| Necaxa |
LDLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Guadalajara Chivas and Necaxa season so far
Guadalajara Chivas record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Necaxa record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Necaxa | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-24 | Guadalajara Chivas | Necaxa | Liga MX | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.