Necaxa
vs
FC Juarez
Garuda Lions Prediction: Necaxa
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Necaxa vs FC Juarez overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Necaxa vs FC Juarez
| Probability | Necaxa | Draw | FC Juarez |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.8% | 24.6% | 26.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 48.8% | 24.6% | 26.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Necaxa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.34.
Necaxa vs FC Juarez match preview
In this Liga MX matchup, Necaxa hosts FC Juarez with a probability of winning set at 49% for Necaxa, 25% for a draw, and 27% for FC Juarez. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Necaxa, with a 9% likelihood. The expectation for total goals is high, with over 2.5 goals projected at 62%, and both teams to score at 63%.
Recent form shows Necaxa struggling with five losses and a draw in their last six matches, while FC Juarez has two draws, a win, and three losses in the same period. In their last two encounters, Necaxa has one win and one draw against FC Juarez, who has yet to secure a victory in this head-to-head. The expected goals for Necaxa stand at 1.86, while FC Juarez is at 1.34.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Necaxa and FC Juarez expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.20
Necaxa and FC Juarez attack and defence ratings
Necaxa
FC Juarez
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Necaxa vs FC Juarez markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Necaxa | 48.8% | 2.05 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Necaxa | 48.8% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| FC Juarez | 26.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.3% |
| No | 36.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Necaxa win | 27.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 51.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.1% |
Necaxa vs FC Juarez stats
Necaxa and FC Juarez recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Necaxa and FC Juarez season so far
Necaxa record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Juarez record
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Necaxa vs FC Juarez head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | FC Juarez | Necaxa | Liga MX | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-13 | Necaxa | FC Juarez | Liga MX | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.