Monterrey
vs
Guadalajara Chivas
Garuda Lions Prediction: Monterrey
1 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Monterrey is the favourite, not a value bet.
Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas
| Probability | Monterrey | Draw | Guadalajara Chivas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.7% | 28.8% | 33.6% |
| Market | 39.3% | 28.2% | 32.5% |
| Final | 38.9% | 28.3% | 32.8% |
| Edge | -0.4% | +0.2% | +0.3% |
Why Monterrey
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.58, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.4% per unit staked (our 38.9% × 2.58 − 1).
Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas match preview
Monterrey and Guadalajara Chivas are set to face off in a Liga MX match with Monterrey holding a 38% probability of winning, while Guadalajara Chivas has a 34% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Monterrey, with an expected goals tally of 1.35 for Monterrey and 1.26 for Guadalajara Chivas. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Monterrey recording two wins, a draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Guadalajara Chivas has two wins, three draws, and one loss.
In their last two encounters, Guadalajara Chivas has emerged victorious in both matches against Monterrey. The model indicates a 48% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored and a 54% chance that both teams will find the net. The confidence grade for this match is rated as C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Monterrey and Guadalajara Chivas expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.62
Monterrey and Guadalajara Chivas attack and defence ratings
Monterrey
Guadalajara Chivas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monterrey | 38.9% | 2.57 | -0.4% | 2.58 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.7% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.3% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monterrey | 38.9% |
| Draw | 28.3% | |
| Guadalajara Chivas | 32.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.4% |
| No | 45.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Monterrey win | 17.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 62.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 8.6% | |
| 0-0 | 8.6% |
Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas stats
Monterrey and Guadalajara Chivas recent form
| Monterrey |
WWDLWD |
| Guadalajara Chivas |
WDDLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Monterrey and Guadalajara Chivas season so far
Monterrey record
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Guadalajara Chivas record
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Monterrey | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX | 2-3 |
| 2025-11-08 | Guadalajara Chivas | Monterrey | Liga MX | 4-2 |
| 2025-04-06 | Monterrey | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX | 3-1 |
| 2024-09-29 | Guadalajara Chivas | Monterrey | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2024-03-31 | Monterrey | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX | 0-2 |
| 2023-09-03 | Guadalajara Chivas | Monterrey | Liga MX | 1-2 |
| 2023-01-08 | Monterrey | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX | 0-1 |
| 2022-08-24 | Guadalajara Chivas | Monterrey | Liga MX | 1-0 |
| 2022-04-14 | Guadalajara Chivas | Monterrey | Liga MX | 1-3 |
| 2021-08-22 | Monterrey | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.9%, draw 28.3%, away 32.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.44 | 3.22 | 2.74 |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.37 | 3.35 | 2.92 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| Dafabet | 2.43 | 3.45 | 2.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.40 | 3.08 | 2.90 |
| Pinnacle | 2.58 | 3.07 | 3.08 |
| SBO | 2.27 | 3.16 | 2.54 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 3.00 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .