Club Tijuana
vs
Santos Laguna
Garuda Lions Prediction: Club Tijuana
1 – 0 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Club Tijuana is the favourite, not a value bet.
Club Tijuana vs Santos Laguna overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Club Tijuana vs Santos Laguna
| Probability | Club Tijuana | Draw | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.8% | 28.3% | 45.9% |
| Market | 47.6% | 25.8% | 26.5% |
| Final | 42.2% | 26.4% | 31.4% |
| Edge | -5.5% | +0.6% | +4.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.04, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.9% per unit staked (our 42.2% × 2.04 − 1).
Club Tijuana vs Santos Laguna match preview
In the upcoming Liga MX match, Club Tijuana faces Santos Laguna with a probability of 42% for a Club Tijuana win, 26% for a draw, and 31% for a Santos Laguna victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Club Tijuana, with an expected goals metric showing 1.07 for Tijuana and 1.49 for Santos Laguna.
Recent form indicates a struggle for Club Tijuana, who have drawn three and lost three of their last six matches, while Santos Laguna is on a strong run, winning their last six games. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Santos Laguna has secured two victories against Club Tijuana, suggesting a challenging matchup for the home side.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Club Tijuana and Santos Laguna expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.56
Club Tijuana and Santos Laguna attack and defence ratings
Club Tijuana
Santos Laguna
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Club Tijuana vs Santos Laguna markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club Tijuana | 42.2% | 2.37 | -5.5% | 2.04 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club Tijuana | 42.2% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Santos Laguna | 31.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.1% |
| No | 47.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Club Tijuana win | 10.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.6% | |
| Loss | 74.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 0-1 | 10.3% | |
| 1-2 | 9.2% |
Club Tijuana vs Santos Laguna stats
Club Tijuana and Santos Laguna recent form
| Club Tijuana |
DDDLDL |
| Santos Laguna |
WWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Club Tijuana and Santos Laguna season so far
Club Tijuana record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
Santos Laguna record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Club Tijuana vs Santos Laguna head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | Club Tijuana | Santos Laguna | Liga MX | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-25 | Santos Laguna | Club Tijuana | Liga MX | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Club Tijuana vs Santos Laguna odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.4%, draw 25.9%, away 26.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.91 | 3.60 | 3.61 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.00 | 3.55 | 3.55 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.04 | 3.70 | 3.45 |
| Marathonbet | 1.89 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| Pinnacle | 2.00 | 3.77 | 3.49 |
| SBO | 1.99 | 3.15 | 3.04 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .