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Liga MX · ·Apertura - 14

U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Tigres UANL

Garuda Lions Prediction: Tigres UANL

0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability

  • WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Tigres UANL is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on Tigres UANL

Estadio Olímpico Universitario, Mexico City

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 36%
Draw 28%
Tigres UANL 36%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Tigres UANL wins
36%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
89%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
49%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
0 – 1
9% of simulated outcomes

U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Tigres UANL overview

Garuda Lions analysis: U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Tigres UANL

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityU.N.A.M. - PumasDrawTigres UANL
Model39.6%30.4%30.0%
Market34.4%27.3%38.2%
Final35.7%28.1%36.2%
Edge+1.3%+0.8%-2.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Tigres UANL

  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Best available price on the pick: 2.59, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.3% per unit staked (our 36.2% × 2.59 − 1).

U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Tigres UANL match preview

U.N.A.M. - Pumas faces Tigres UANL in a Liga MX matchup where the probabilities indicate a slight edge for Tigres UANL at 37%, compared to U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 34% and a draw at 28%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 9%. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with U.N.A.M. - Pumas recording one win in their last five matches, while Tigres UANL has two wins in the same span.

In terms of expected goals, U.N.A.M. - Pumas is forecasted to score 1.27, while Tigres UANL is projected at 1.08. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 42%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 49%. Historically, U.N.A.M. - Pumas has the upper hand in their last two encounters, with one win and one draw against Tigres UANL, who have yet to secure a victory in this matchup.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

U.N.A.M. - Pum ↓ / Tigres UANL → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 9% 1 11% 14% 2 8% 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 69%
3+ goals 42%
No goals 11%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Tigres UANL expected goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1.27
Tigres UANL 1.08

Total expected goals: 2.35

U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Tigres UANL attack and defence ratings

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Attack 0.92 -8%
Defence 1.17 +17%

Tigres UANL

Attack 0.73 -27%
Defence 0.83 -17%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Apertura - 14 fixtures

Liga MX

Before and after this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Tigres UANL markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Tigres UANL 36.2% 2.76 -2.1% 2.59
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 58.3% 1.72 — —
Both teams to score No 51.2% 1.95 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.9% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 70.0% 1.43 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2U.N.A.M. - Pumas35.7%
Draw28.1%
Tigres UANL36.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541.7%
Under 2.558.3%
Both teams to scoreYes48.8%
No51.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)63.8%
12 (either side)71.9%
X2 (draw or away)64.3%
Handicap -1Tigres UANL win12.2%
Push (exactly one goal)17.8%
Loss70.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.4%
0-010.8%
1-010.8%
Compare prices for this pick

U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Tigres UANL stats

U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Tigres UANL recent form

newest first
U.N.A.M. - Pumas LWDLDL
Tigres UANL LDWWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Tigres UANL season so far

league record

U.N.A.M. - Pumas record

  • They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Tigres UANL record

  • They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Tigres UANL head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins 4Draws 4Tigres UANL wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-15Tigres UANLU.N.A.M. - PumasLiga MX0-1
2025-09-21U.N.A.M. - PumasTigres UANLLiga MX1-1
2025-04-20Tigres UANLU.N.A.M. - PumasLiga MX2-1
2024-09-01U.N.A.M. - PumasTigres UANLLiga MX1-3
2024-02-04Tigres UANLU.N.A.M. - PumasLiga MX2-2
2023-12-11Tigres UANLU.N.A.M. - PumasLiga MX1-1
2023-12-08U.N.A.M. - PumasTigres UANLLiga MX0-1
2023-08-28U.N.A.M. - PumasTigres UANLLiga MX2-1
2023-02-12Tigres UANLU.N.A.M. - PumasLiga MX4-2
2022-08-25U.N.A.M. - PumasTigres UANLLiga MX1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Tigres UANL odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 34.5%, draw 27.2%, away 38.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.67 3.34 2.43
Bet365 2.90 3.40 2.40
BetVictor 2.70 3.40 2.40
Betano 2.77 3.40 2.47
Betfair 2.63 3.50 2.40
Dafabet 2.80 3.45 2.50
Marathonbet 2.67 3.34 2.43
Pinnacle 2.73 3.50 2.59
SBO 2.49 3.06 2.36
William Hill 2.50 3.10 2.40
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.70 ▼ -0.26
X 3.40 ▲ +0.02
2 2.43 ▲ +0.18

9 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 Tigres UANL Predicted score 0 – 1 Low Bet Now
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