Tigres UANL
vs
Leon
Garuda Lions Prediction: Leon
0 – 1 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Tigres UANL vs Leon overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tigres UANL vs Leon
| Probability | Tigres UANL | Draw | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.6% | 33.7% | 34.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 31.6% | 33.7% | 34.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Leon
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Tigres UANL vs Leon match preview
Tigres UANL faces Leon in an upcoming Liga MX match, with probabilities indicating a close contest. Tigres UANL has a 32% chance of winning, while Leon holds a slight edge at 35%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1 in favor of Leon, with a 13% probability. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Tigres UANL recording two wins, one loss, and three draws in their last six matches, while Leon has three wins, two draws, and one loss.
The expected goals suggest a tight match, with Tigres UANL at 0.96 and Leon at 1.02. There is a 41% likelihood that both teams will score, and the model estimates a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. The head-to-head record shows Tigres UANL with one win and one draw against Leon in their last two encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tigres UANL and Leon expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.99
Tigres UANL and Leon attack and defence ratings
Tigres UANL
Leon
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
- Guadalajara Chivas v Necaxa — match page
- FC Juarez v Atlante FC — match page
- Atletico San Luis vs Club Queretaro — team news & stats
- Toluca vs Club Tijuana — team news & stats
- Atlas vs Club America
- Puebla v Monterrey — match page
- Santos Laguna vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — team news & stats
- CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul
Before and after this match
Tigres UANL vs Leon markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leon | 34.8% | 2.88 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.0% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 68.4% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tigres UANL | 31.6% |
| Draw | 33.7% | |
| Leon | 34.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.0% |
| No | 59.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Leon win | 13.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 65.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.1% |
| 1-1 | 14.9% | |
| 0-1 | 12.7% |
Tigres UANL vs Leon stats
Tigres UANL and Leon recent form
| Tigres UANL |
WWLDDD |
| Leon |
DWDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tigres UANL and Leon season so far
Tigres UANL record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Leon record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tigres UANL vs Leon head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Leon | Tigres UANL | Liga MX | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-14 | Tigres UANL | Leon | Liga MX | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.