Toluca
vs
Club Tijuana
Garuda Lions Prediction: Toluca
2 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Toluca vs Club Tijuana overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Toluca vs Club Tijuana
| Probability | Toluca | Draw | Club Tijuana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67.6% | 19.5% | 12.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 67.6% | 19.5% | 12.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Toluca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.35 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Toluca vs Club Tijuana match preview
Toluca enters this match against Club Tijuana with a strong probability of winning at 69%, while the likelihood of a draw stands at 18% and Club Tijuana at 13%. The expected goals for Toluca are notably higher at 2.58 compared to 1.08 for Club Tijuana, suggesting a significant offensive advantage. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, which has a 9% probability.
In terms of recent form, Toluca has recorded two wins in their last five matches, alongside two losses and one draw. Conversely, Club Tijuana has struggled, with only one win in their last six games, including three losses and two draws. Additionally, the expectation for over 2.5 goals in this match is 71%, and both teams scoring is projected at 62%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Toluca and Club Tijuana expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.31
Toluca and Club Tijuana attack and defence ratings
Toluca
Club Tijuana
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Toluca vs Club Tijuana markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toluca | 67.6% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.1% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Toluca win | 45.7% | 2.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toluca | 67.6% |
| Draw | 19.5% | |
| Club Tijuana | 12.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.6% |
| No | 43.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Toluca win | 45.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 32.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 1-1 | 9.1% |
Toluca vs Club Tijuana stats
Toluca and Club Tijuana recent form
| Toluca |
LDLWWW |
| Club Tijuana |
DDLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Toluca and Club Tijuana season so far
Toluca record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Club Tijuana record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
Toluca vs Club Tijuana head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Toluca | Club Tijuana | Liga MX | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-23 | Club Tijuana | Toluca | Liga MX | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.