Puebla
vs
Monterrey
Garuda Lions Prediction: Puebla
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Puebla vs Monterrey overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Puebla vs Monterrey
| Probability | Puebla | Draw | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.0% | 30.6% | 32.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 37.0% | 30.6% | 32.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Puebla vs Monterrey match preview
Puebla will face Monterrey in their upcoming Liga MX match, with our model assigning a 38% probability of a Puebla victory, a 29% chance of a draw, and a 33% likelihood of Monterrey winning. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Puebla, occurring with a 9% probability. Both teams show a moderate chance of scoring, with 54% for both teams to score and 48% for over 2.5 goals.
In terms of recent form, Puebla has recorded a mixed set of results with a record of D-L-D-L-W-L, while Monterrey's recent performance includes D-L-W-D-L-D. The expected goals for Puebla stands at 1.34, slightly higher than Monterrey's 1.25. Historically, Monterrey has dominated their last two encounters, winning both matches against Puebla.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Puebla and Monterrey expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.35
Puebla and Monterrey attack and defence ratings
Puebla
Monterrey
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Puebla vs Monterrey markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Puebla | 37.0% | 2.70 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Puebla | 37.0% |
| Draw | 30.6% | |
| Monterrey | 32.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.9% |
| No | 51.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Puebla win | 16.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 63.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.5% |
| 0-0 | 10.9% | |
| 1-0 | 10.4% |
Puebla vs Monterrey stats
Puebla and Monterrey recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Puebla and Monterrey season so far
Puebla record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Monterrey record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Puebla vs Monterrey head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Monterrey | Puebla | Liga MX | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-30 | Puebla | Monterrey | Liga MX | 2-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.