CF Pachuca
vs
Cruz Azul
Garuda Lions Prediction: CF Pachuca
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul overview
Garuda Lions analysis: CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul
| Probability | CF Pachuca | Draw | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.9% | 22.8% | 27.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 49.9% | 22.8% | 27.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why CF Pachuca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 1.52.
CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul match preview
CF Pachuca faces Cruz Azul in a Liga MX matchup where Pachuca holds a 50% probability of winning, while Cruz Azul has a 27% chance. The model predicts a likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Pachuca, with an expected goals tally of 2.09 for Pachuca and 1.51 for Cruz Azul. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 70%, and both teams scoring stands at 69%.
In terms of recent form, Pachuca has recorded a draw, loss, draw, win, win, and draw in their last six matches, while Cruz Azul has a more positive trend with two draws followed by three wins. The head-to-head record from the last two encounters shows each team with one win. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
CF Pachuca and Cruz Azul expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.60
CF Pachuca and Cruz Azul attack and defence ratings
CF Pachuca
Cruz Azul
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
- Guadalajara Chivas v Necaxa — match page
- FC Juarez v Atlante FC — match page
- Atletico San Luis vs Club Queretaro — team news & stats
- Tigres UANL vs Leon
- Toluca vs Club Tijuana — team news & stats
- Atlas vs Club America
- Puebla v Monterrey — match page
- Santos Laguna vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — team news & stats
Before and after this match
CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CF Pachuca | 49.9% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.8% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.2% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CF Pachuca | 49.9% |
| Draw | 22.8% | |
| Cruz Azul | 27.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% |
| No | 30.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | CF Pachuca win | 29.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 50.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 2-2 | 6.8% |
CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul stats
CF Pachuca and Cruz Azul recent form
| CF Pachuca |
DLDWWD |
| Cruz Azul |
DDLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
CF Pachuca and Cruz Azul season so far
CF Pachuca record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cruz Azul record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Cruz Azul | CF Pachuca | Liga MX | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-13 | CF Pachuca | Cruz Azul | Liga MX | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.