Club America
vs
CF Pachuca
Garuda Lions Prediction: Club America
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.97 vs 1.37.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Club America vs CF Pachuca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Club America vs CF Pachuca
| Probability | Club America | Draw | CF Pachuca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69.3% | 16.3% | 14.5% |
| Market | 59.7% | 21.8% | 18.5% |
| Final | 62.1% | 20.4% | 17.5% |
| Edge | +2.4% | -1.4% | -1.0% |
Why Club America
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.97 vs 1.37.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Club America below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.6% per unit staked (our 62.1% × 1.62 − 1).
Club America vs CF Pachuca match preview
In the upcoming Liga MX match, Club America is favored with a 59% probability of winning against CF Pachuca, who has a 19% chance of securing a victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Club America, with an 81% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. Club America has shown solid recent form with two wins, two draws, and one loss, while CF Pachuca's recent performance includes two losses, two draws, and one win.
The expected goals for Club America stand at 2.96, compared to CF Pachuca's 1.37, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the home side. In their last two encounters, Club America has recorded one win and one draw against CF Pachuca, who has yet to secure a victory in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Club America and CF Pachuca expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.34
Club America and CF Pachuca attack and defence ratings
Club America
CF Pachuca
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Club America vs CF Pachuca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club America | 62.1% | 1.61 | +2.4% | 1.62 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.8% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.5% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Club America win | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club America | 62.1% |
| Draw | 20.4% | |
| CF Pachuca | 17.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 19.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.4% |
| No | 28.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Club America win | 50.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 30.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.9% |
| 3-1 | 7.8% | |
| 1-1 | 5.8% |
Club America vs CF Pachuca stats
Club America and CF Pachuca recent form
| Club America |
WWDWDL |
| CF Pachuca |
LLDLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Club America and CF Pachuca season so far
Club America record
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
CF Pachuca record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Club America vs CF Pachuca head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | CF Pachuca | Club America | Liga MX | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Club America | CF Pachuca | Liga MX | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Club America vs CF Pachuca odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.6%, draw 21.9%, away 18.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.55 | 4.25 | 5.01 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 4.00 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.55 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.60 | 4.05 | 5.30 |
| Betfair | 1.55 | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.61 | 4.30 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.53 | 4.25 | 5.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.56 | 4.54 | 5.09 |
| SBO | 1.52 | 3.76 | 4.46 |
| William Hill | 1.53 | 3.90 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .