Club Queretaro
vs
Cruz Azul
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cruz Azul
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.44.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Cruz Azul is the favourite, not a value bet.
Club Queretaro vs Cruz Azul overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Club Queretaro vs Cruz Azul
| Probability | Club Queretaro | Draw | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.8% | 24.8% | 45.3% |
| Market | 26.7% | 25.3% | 48.0% |
| Final | 27.5% | 25.2% | 47.3% |
| Edge | +0.8% | -0.1% | -0.7% |
Why Cruz Azul
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.44.
Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.4% per unit staked (our 47.3% × 2.00 − 1).
Club Queretaro vs Cruz Azul match preview
In the upcoming Liga MX match, Club Queretaro faces Cruz Azul with a probability distribution favoring Cruz Azul at 42%, while Club Queretaro stands at 34% and a 25% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with a 9% likelihood. Both teams are expected to contribute to a high-scoring game, as the model indicates a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% probability that both teams will score.
Analyzing recent form, Club Queretaro has recorded two wins and one draw in their last five matches, while Cruz Azul has achieved three wins and two draws in the same period. In their last two encounters, neither team has secured a win, resulting in two draws. The expected goals for Club Queretaro is 1.56, while Cruz Azul is slightly higher at 1.75, suggesting a competitive matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Club Queretaro and Cruz Azul expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.25
Club Queretaro and Cruz Azul attack and defence ratings
Club Queretaro
Cruz Azul
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Club Queretaro vs Cruz Azul markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cruz Azul | 47.3% | 2.11 | -0.7% | 2.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.1% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.9% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club Queretaro | 27.5% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Cruz Azul | 47.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.9% |
| No | 35.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cruz Azul win | 25.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 54.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.1% | |
| 2-1 | 7.3% |
Club Queretaro vs Cruz Azul stats
Club Queretaro and Cruz Azul recent form
| Club Queretaro |
LLWWDW |
| Cruz Azul |
WWDDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Club Queretaro and Cruz Azul season so far
Club Queretaro record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cruz Azul record
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Club Queretaro vs Cruz Azul head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Club Queretaro | Cruz Azul | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-25 | Cruz Azul | Club Queretaro | Liga MX | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Club Queretaro vs Cruz Azul odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.7%, draw 25.4%, away 47.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.52 | 3.64 | 1.92 |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.60 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 3.50 | 3.70 | 1.98 |
| Betfair | 3.50 | 3.80 | 1.95 |
| Dafabet | 3.55 | 3.75 | 1.99 |
| Marathonbet | 3.50 | 3.64 | 1.90 |
| Pinnacle | 3.48 | 3.79 | 2.00 |
| SBO | 3.13 | 3.16 | 1.95 |
| William Hill | 3.25 | 3.30 | 1.91 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .