Cruz Azul
vs
Leon
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cruz Azul
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.38.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Cruz Azul vs Leon overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cruz Azul vs Leon
| Probability | Cruz Azul | Draw | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.6% | 21.9% | 22.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 55.6% | 21.9% | 22.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Cruz Azul
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.38.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Cruz Azul vs Leon match preview
Cruz Azul enters the match against Leon with a strong probability of winning at 56%, while Leon has a 23% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Cruz Azul, with an expected goals total of 2.22 for Cruz Azul and 1.38 for Leon. The model suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 70%, and both teams scoring at 68%.
In terms of recent form, Cruz Azul has recorded three wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches, while Leon has two wins, three draws, and one loss. The head-to-head record from the last two encounters shows each team with one win. Despite the favorable probabilities for Cruz Azul, the confidence grade for this match is rated as C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cruz Azul and Leon expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.60
Cruz Azul and Leon attack and defence ratings
Cruz Azul
Leon
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 15 fixtures
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- Atletico San Luis vs Atlas — team news & stats
- Puebla vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas
- CF Pachuca v Tigres UANL — match page
- Monterrey vs Club Tijuana — team news & stats
- Guadalajara Chivas vs Atlante FC
- Club America v Toluca — match page
- Santos Laguna vs Necaxa — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Cruz Azul vs Leon markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cruz Azul | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.7% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.6% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.4% | 2.25 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cruz Azul | 55.6% |
| Draw | 21.9% | |
| Leon | 22.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.6% |
| No | 32.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cruz Azul win | 34.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 44.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.3% |
| 1-1 | 9.2% | |
| 3-1 | 6.9% |
Cruz Azul vs Leon stats
Cruz Azul and Leon recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cruz Azul and Leon season so far
Cruz Azul record
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
Leon record
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Cruz Azul vs Leon head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | Leon | Cruz Azul | Liga MX | 2-1 |
| 2025-07-27 | Cruz Azul | Leon | Liga MX | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.