Leon
vs
Guadalajara Chivas
Garuda Lions Prediction: Guadalajara Chivas
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Guadalajara Chivas is the favourite, not a value bet.
Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas
| Probability | Leon | Draw | Guadalajara Chivas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.0% | 28.5% | 39.5% |
| Market | 30.0% | 26.5% | 43.5% |
| Final | 30.5% | 27.0% | 42.5% |
| Edge | +0.5% | +0.5% | -1.0% |
Why Guadalajara Chivas
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.19, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.9% per unit staked (our 42.5% × 2.19 − 1).
Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas match preview
In the upcoming Liga MX match between Leon and Guadalajara Chivas, the probabilities indicate a competitive encounter, with Guadalajara Chivas holding a 43% chance of winning compared to Leon's 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, with a 9% probability. Expected goals suggest a slight edge for Guadalajara Chivas at 1.40, while Leon is forecasted to score 1.24.
Recent form shows Leon with mixed results, recording one win in their last six matches (L-D-W-L-D-W), while Guadalajara Chivas has been more consistent, winning three of their last six (W-W-W-D-D-L). The head-to-head record in the last two encounters is even, with each team securing one win. The model indicates a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Leon and Guadalajara Chivas expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.64
Leon and Guadalajara Chivas attack and defence ratings
Leon
Guadalajara Chivas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 42.5% | 2.35 | -1.0% | 2.19 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.8% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leon | 30.5% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Guadalajara Chivas | 42.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.8% |
| No | 45.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Guadalajara Chivas win | 19.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 60.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 0-1 | 8.7% | |
| 1-2 | 8.7% |
Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas stats
Leon and Guadalajara Chivas recent form
| Leon |
LDWLDW |
| Guadalajara Chivas |
WWWDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Leon and Guadalajara Chivas season so far
Leon record
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Guadalajara Chivas record
- They have won 7 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | Guadalajara Chivas | Leon | Liga MX | 5-0 |
| 2025-07-20 | Leon | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.0%, draw 26.5%, away 43.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.08 | 3.50 | 2.13 |
| Bet365 | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.15 |
| BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.15 | 3.50 | 2.18 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.20 | 3.55 | 2.19 |
| Marathonbet | 3.06 | 3.50 | 2.11 |
| Pinnacle | 3.22 | 3.63 | 2.17 |
| SBO | 2.77 | 3.11 | 2.14 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .