U.N.A.M. - Pumas
vs
Club America
Garuda Lions Prediction: Club America
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.67.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Club America is the favourite, not a value bet.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Club America overview
Garuda Lions analysis: U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Club America
| Probability | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Draw | Club America |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.6% | 23.1% | 45.3% |
| Market | 31.7% | 26.2% | 42.2% |
| Final | 31.6% | 25.4% | 42.9% |
| Edge | -0.0% | -0.8% | +0.8% |
Why Club America
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.67.
Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.2% per unit staked (our 42.9% × 2.30 − 1).
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Club America match preview
U.N.A.M. - Pumas faces Club America in an upcoming Liga MX match with U.N.A.M. - Pumas holding a 31% probability of winning, while Club America is favored at 44%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%. Both teams show strong potential for scoring, with a 71% chance for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.
In terms of recent form, U.N.A.M. - Pumas has recorded a mixed bag of results with a record of W-D-L-W-D-L, while Club America has shown slightly better consistency with D-D-L-W-W-D. The expected goals for U.N.A.M. - Pumas stand at 1.67, compared to Club America's 2.00. The head-to-head record in the last four encounters shows U.N.A.M. - Pumas with 1 win, 2 draws, and Club America with 1 win.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Club America expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.68
U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Club America attack and defence ratings
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Club America
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Club America markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club America | 42.9% | 2.33 | +0.8% | 2.30 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 31.6% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Club America | 42.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.1% |
| No | 28.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Club America win | 26.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.1% | |
| Loss | 54.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.3% |
| 1-2 | 8.5% | |
| 2-2 | 7.1% |
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Club America stats
U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Club America recent form
| U.N.A.M. - Pumas |
WDLWDL |
| Club America |
DDLWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Club America season so far
U.N.A.M. - Pumas record
- They have won 5 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 15 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Club America record
- They have won 8 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.9 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Club America head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Club America | Liga MX | 3-3 |
| 2026-05-03 | Club America | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX | 3-3 |
| 2026-03-22 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Club America | Liga MX | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Club America | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX | 4-1 |
| 2025-02-23 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Club America | Liga MX | 0-2 |
| 2024-09-30 | Club America | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX | 0-1 |
| 2024-04-21 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Club America | Liga MX | 2-1 |
| 2023-10-01 | Club America | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX | 1-0 |
| 2023-04-23 | Club America | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2022-12-24 | Club America | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Copa por México | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Club America odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.7%, draw 26.2%, away 42.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.94 | 3.54 | 2.19 |
| Bet365 | 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.88 | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| Betano | 3.05 | 3.45 | 2.27 |
| Betfair | 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.95 | 3.60 | 2.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.92 | 3.54 | 2.17 |
| Pinnacle | 3.02 | 3.73 | 2.29 |
| SBO | 2.62 | 3.13 | 2.23 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.15 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .