Liga MX
·
Full time
·Apertura - 16
Necaxa
vs
Club Tijuana
1 – 0 Full time
| 12′ | Danny Leyva | ||
| 34′ | Rafael Fernández | ||
| 45′ | Julián CarranzaJuan Valencia | ||
| 45′ | Mourad El GhezouaniElias Manoel | ||
| 45′ | Pablo OrtízUnai Bilbao | ||
| 53′ | Raúl Martínez | ||
| 65′ | Lorenzo FaravelliJoshua Alejandro Palacios Pulido | ||
| 70′ | Gilberto MoraYael Padilla | ||
| 77′ | Raúl MartínezLeroy Davis | ||
| 77′ | Owen GonzálezAlexis Peña | ||
| 78′ | Francisco GonzálezDiego Abreu | ||
| 78′ | José RiveroRamiro Árciga | ||
| 90′ | Diego OchoaPedro Pedraza | ||
| 90′ | Ivan Tona |
Necaxa
36%
Draw
26%
Club Tijuana
38%
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 18 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 42 | Possession % | 58 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 3 | Saves | 4 |
| 299 | Accurate passes | 434 |
Necaxa vs Club Tijuana overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Necaxa vs Club Tijuana
| Probability | Necaxa | Draw | Club Tijuana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.7% | 26.0% | 46.3% |
| Market | 38.7% | 26.6% | 34.7% |
| Final | 36.0% | 26.4% | 37.6% |
| Edge | -2.8% | -0.1% | +2.9% |
Why Club Tijuana
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Club Tijuana below our published probability: +2.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
81%
3+ goals
57%
No goals
6%
Necaxa and Club Tijuana expected goals
Necaxa
1.28
Club Tijuana
1.70
Total expected goals: 2.98
Necaxa and Club Tijuana attack and defence ratings
Necaxa
Attack
0.69 -31%
Defence
1.19 +19%
Club Tijuana
Attack
1.12 +12%
Defence
1.11 +11%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Necaxa vs Club Tijuana: result vs prediction
Necaxa 1 – 0 Club Tijuana
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Apertura - 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Necaxa vs Club Tijuana markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club Tijuana | 37.6% | 2.66 | +2.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Necaxa | 36.0% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Club Tijuana | 37.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.1% |
| No | 39.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Club Tijuana win | 25.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 53.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.4% | |
| 0-1 | 7.5% |
Necaxa vs Club Tijuana stats
Necaxa and Club Tijuana recent form
| Necaxa |
LDLLDL |
| Club Tijuana |
DDWDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Necaxa and Club Tijuana going into this match
Necaxa record
- They have won 2 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 15 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Club Tijuana record
- They have won 5 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 15 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
Necaxa vs Club Tijuana head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Necaxa wins
4Draws
3Club Tijuana wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Necaxa | Club Tijuana | Liga MX | 3-0 |
| 2025-09-01 | Club Tijuana | Necaxa | Liga MX | 3-0 |
| 2025-04-05 | Club Tijuana | Necaxa | Liga MX | 1-2 |
| 2024-10-19 | Necaxa | Club Tijuana | Liga MX | 1-2 |
| 2024-04-06 | Club Tijuana | Necaxa | Liga MX | 2-3 |
| 2024-01-06 | Necaxa | Club Tijuana | Friendlies Clubs | 1-3 |
| 2023-07-08 | Necaxa | Club Tijuana | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2023-02-04 | Necaxa | Club Tijuana | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2022-09-19 | Club Tijuana | Necaxa | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2022-02-19 | Club Tijuana | Necaxa | Liga MX | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Necaxa vs Club Tijuana odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.7%, draw 26.6%, away 34.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.38 | 3.42 | 2.68 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.75 |
| BetVictor | 2.40 | 3.50 | 2.63 |
| Betano | 2.42 | 3.55 | 2.72 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.60 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.47 | 3.65 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.38 | 3.42 | 2.68 |
| Pinnacle | 2.49 | 3.58 | 2.82 |
| SBO | 2.35 | 3.29 | 2.61 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.20 | 2.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.40 ▲ +0.22
X
3.50 ▼ -0.17
2
2.68 ▼ -0.21
10 snapshots recorded, from .