Club Queretaro
vs
Puebla
Garuda Lions Prediction: Club Queretaro
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.29.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Club Queretaro is the favourite, not a value bet.
Club Queretaro vs Puebla overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Club Queretaro vs Puebla
| Probability | Club Queretaro | Draw | Puebla |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.1% | 25.7% | 27.2% |
| Market | 52.1% | 24.8% | 23.2% |
| Final | 50.8% | 25.0% | 24.2% |
| Edge | -1.2% | +0.2% | +1.0% |
Why Club Queretaro
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.83, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.0% per unit staked (our 50.8% × 1.83 − 1).
Club Queretaro vs Puebla match preview
Club Queretaro enters the match against Puebla with a probability of 51% to win, while Puebla has a 24% chance of securing victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Club Queretaro, with an expected goals tally of 1.74 for Queretaro compared to 1.28 for Puebla. Additionally, there is a 58% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams are expected to score in 61% of scenarios.
Recent form shows Club Queretaro with a mixed record of L-L-L-L-W-W, while Puebla has struggled, recording L-L-L-D-D-L in their last matches. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Club Queretaro has won both matches against Puebla, indicating a favorable trend for the home side. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Club Queretaro and Puebla expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.03
Club Queretaro and Puebla attack and defence ratings
Club Queretaro
Puebla
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Club Queretaro vs Puebla markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club Queretaro | 50.8% | 1.97 | -1.2% | 1.83 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club Queretaro | 50.8% |
| Draw | 25.0% | |
| Puebla | 24.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.8% |
| No | 39.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Club Queretaro win | 26.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 52.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 7.3% |
Club Queretaro vs Puebla stats
Club Queretaro and Puebla recent form
| Club Queretaro |
LLLLWW |
| Puebla |
LLLDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Club Queretaro and Puebla season so far
Club Queretaro record
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Puebla record
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
Club Queretaro vs Puebla head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Puebla | Club Queretaro | Liga MX | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-04 | Club Queretaro | Puebla | Liga MX | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Club Queretaro vs Puebla odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.1%, draw 24.8%, away 23.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.78 | 3.78 | 3.94 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.75 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.75 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.83 | 3.75 | 4.05 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.83 | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.76 | 3.78 | 3.94 |
| Pinnacle | 1.81 | 3.87 | 4.18 |
| SBO | 1.77 | 3.31 | 3.57 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.40 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .